AFC Championship: Denver Broncos must pressure Drake Maye, force turnovers
The Denver Broncos need to pressure Drake Maye and force turnovers. A preview of the AFC Championship Game between the Patriots and Broncos.
It all comes down to this; the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots go head-to-head in the AFC Championship Game for a chance to play in Super Bowl LX.
The strength vs. strength matchup in this game is New England's explosive offense vs. the Broncos destructive defense. Denver will look to force turnovers on a young, turnover-prone quarterback in Drake Maye.
On the opposite side, it's backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham vs. an underrated Patriots defense that has been hot lately.
It all seems to be adding up to a low-scoring, defensive battle at Empower Field at Mile High Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
Denver's got to hope that's how it plays out, because if the Patriots' passing game gets going, the Broncos offense likely can't keep up.
Denver Broncos, Nik Bonitto, must pressure Drake Maye and force turnovers
Nik Bonitto was a game-wrecker and game-changer in the Broncos overtime win over the Bills in the Divisional Round. Now, he needs to do the same against Drake Maye and the Patriots this week.
The good news? Buffalo's O-line is one of the best in the NFL. The Patriots isn't.
Bonitto became the third Broncos player ever to record two fumbles in a playoff game. One came while chasing down Josh Allen on a scramble before halftime—Allen was carrying the ball like a dozen eggs—and the second came right after half, a sack-fumble.
For how great Maye has been this season as and MVP finalist, he has one fatal flaw: fumbles.
Maye has fumbled the ball 14 times this season, including six fumbles in only two playoff games. He lost three of them in the playoffs so far, and Bonitto, Jonathon Cooper, and Zach Allen will be looking to force multiple fumbles on Sunday afternoon.
"The significance of it (turnovers) in a game that’s pretty quick, and it’s not a best of five," Sean Payton said on Friday. "It’s a three-hour game that oftentimes these games can be lost, not won.”
Bonitto and/or Cooper will be going against Patriots rookie tackle Will Campbell, who's been a liability in pass blocking most of this season. He allowed five sacks during the regular season, but three already in the Pats' two playoff games. Mina Kimes believes that matchup, Bonitto vs. Campbell, is where the Broncos upset chances start.
And Ben Solak, who joined Kimes on the podcast, described well how Denver set the franchise-record with 68 sacks this year; Bonitto and Cooper are so fast off the snap they make the quarterback step up, and then the inside guys like Allen, D.J. Jones, and John Franklin-Myers condense the space a QB has to throw.
Broncos pass rush is historically good
According to this piece by Sports Info Solutions, Vance Joseph's defense uses a 4-man rush only 63% of the time (30th), but they have a 40% success rate (1st).
So, the Broncos can get to the quarterback with only four rushing. Which is a huge advantage when they want to drop seven into coverage.
However, the Broncos blitz 32% of the time, which is 3rd-most in the NFL.
And Broncos Country knows the EDGE guys aren't the only ones getting to the quarterback. Zach Allen and the other aforementioned interior linemen have a wild 139 pressures and 25 sacks on the season.
Pressuring Drake Maye is the key on defense
Maye will eat a defense alive if he has time to survey the field. The kid led the league in completion percentage and passer rating, and he loves to uncork deep balls.
But those passes take time.
And Maye shrinks when he's pressured.
This gem from FTN Fantasy:
"Drake Maye ranked fourth in the NFL in EPA per dropback against pressure during the regular season, but that success has not carried over to the playoffs. Through two postseason games, Maye ranks dead last among playoff quarterbacks in EPA per dropback when pressured."
Patriots will try to use quick passing game to beat the pass rush
As this piece from the Boston Herald points out, the Patriots will try to nullify the Broncos great pass rush by using the quick passing game.
New England will try to move the ball on the Broncos with a thousand paper cuts, using quick screens and slants where the ball comes out in under 2.5 seconds.
Meanwhile, Kimes pointed out that Bonitto had three quick pressures of 2.38 seconds last week against the Bills and Josh Allen.
And when Maye does pass the ball, the Broncos have the best success rate in terms of passing defense.
Just noticed the four teams remaining each ranked first in a regular season unit success rate. Passing offense: Patriots Rushing offense: Rams Passing defense: Broncos Rushing defense: Seahawks
— Seth Walder (@sethwalder.bsky.social) 2026-01-23T17:57:14.936Z
However, Denver's defensive backs need to be disciplined on Sunday—looking at you Riley Moss—and not commit defensive pass interference penalties. The Broncos had the 6th-most penalties called on them and the most DPIs (20) of any team this year. Moss had five pass interferences called against him alone.
New England can run the ball, too
We can't forget how explosive the Patriots run game can be.
TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson are both talented backs and each of them can break long runs.
If the Patriots are consistently gaining first downs on the ground, they'll continue to. New England has proven they can win that way and not need Maye to pass much at times this season.
Rich Kurtzman
Pats Defense vs. Jarrett Stidham and Broncos Offense
What Jarrett Stidham does on Sunday is up in the air. No one is sure what's going to happen!
It's made for one of the most interesting AFC Championship weeks in recent memory.
Before Bo Nix was injured, the Broncos were 1.5-point favorites, so the line moved 6 points with news of him being out. And yet, Denver's got a shot to win this thing.
Only if the defense keeps the game close.
If they do, Stidham and the offense will still have to make some plays. And they'll be without starting running back J.K. Dobbins, who was ruled out on Friday.
Rich Kurtzman
Dobbins would have been a great back to lean on, making "Stiddy" less responsible for the offense. Now Denver will have to rely on rookie RJ Harvey in the run game, as well as Jaleel McLaughlin. And I expect Marvin Mims to run some from the backfield, and Solak said he thinks we'll see a "kitchen sink" run approach including reverses and more.
But that's only if and when Payton decides to run.
With Nix at quarterback last week, Payton ran a mere 10 times with Harvey and McLaughlin, and passed 46 times. But that was often the game plan with Nix this year. In fact, his 612 passing attempts led the NFL.
Asking a backup quarterback in Stidham to throw 35-plus times is probably a recipe for disaster against a strong and underrated defense.
So, what do we have on Stiddy to let us know how Payton may play to his strengths and avoid his weaknesses?
Kimes said what she learned from scouting Stidham is that he's accurate and he can move. Which you've probably seen in his highlight tapes from 2022-23 and the preseason. Solak said what concerns him is his league-average sack rate compared to Nix's NFL-leading rate.
When he does pass, Stiddy needs to target Carlton Davis, who's given up yards on DPIs and passes this year. Davis' 13 penalties and 9 DPIs each lead the Pats this year. Also, avoiding Pro Bowler Christian Gonzalez is a smart move because he's a star.
It would be great if Courtland Sutton showed up much more than he did in the Divisional Round, and Denver got a boost in the injury report as Pat Bryant is good to go after sustaining a concussion last week. I'd also love to see Evan Engram get involved, and Marvin Mims must have the ball in his hands many times this week after blowing up last weekend.
FTN Fantasy went on a deep dive and assessed his stats from the 2022-23 seasons. The conclusions were that Stidham isn't a great deep passer, and he takes sacks at a much higher rate than does Nix.
First, on deep throws. Nix wasn't that great at them this year, outside of the Chiefs, Packers, and then last week's Divisional Round win.
Bo Nix throws by distance during the reg. szn
— Joe Mahoney (@ndjomo.bsky.social) 2026-01-05T18:01:19.375Z
From FTN Fantasy:
"This is a very small sample size of course, but Stidham had 26.9% DVOA on [deep] throws in 2022 and -27.7% DVOA in 2023. The first figure would rank 32nd out of this year’s qualifying quarterbacks. The second figure would rank last. However, this is not a huge difference from Bo Nix, who only had 39.6% DVOA on deep throws this season to rank 28th."
On taking sacks, Nix was the best in the NFL this year. He only got sacked on 3.47% of his dropbacks. Part of that was the brilliant Broncos offensive line. Part of that is Nix's obsession with not taking a sack, as Cris Collinsworth talked about during the win over the Commanders and what his dad taught him growing up.
From FTN Fantasy: "Nix may be the best quarterback in the league when it comes to avoiding sacks. Yes, some of this is the strong Denver offensive line, but Nix had a 3.9% adjusted sack rate this year to lead the NFL. Stidham had adjusted sack rates of 9.6% in 2022 and 10.6% in 2023. Nix only took 22 sacks over 17 starts during this year’s regular season. Stidham took 13 sacks over just four starts in 2022-2023."
What Stiddy needs to do is avoid making mistakes. Namely, he can't turn the ball over more than once, and ideally, no times during the AFC Championship Game. Also, when he can, Stidham needs to throw the ball away to avoid sacks, and he can't just toss the ball up for grabs, like C.J. Stroud did multiple times last week vs. New England.
It's a lot to ask of the backup, but these are the same constraints that would be put on Nix if he were playing; don't turn it over, don't take sacks.
One other thing that stuck with me that Solak said is Sean Payton's offense is "QB agnostic."
If you think about his record with backup quarterbacks (12-8), the fact that Denver was on the verge of making the playoffs with a washed Russ at QB, and that the Broncos got to the playoffs with rookie Bo Nix last year; maybe Solak is onto something. And maybe that means Stiddy will be just fine, or at least good enough, tomorrow.
Patriots defense is hot right now
Speaking of sacks, the Patriots are insanely hot right now.
One positive for Denver is Harold Landry, the Pats' leading sack man with 8.5 this year, is out for the Championship Game.
One negative, though, is New England's defense has outplayed Denver's D over the second half of the season. And they've gotten even hotter later in the year and into the postseason.
Hunting season 🏹
— FTN Fantasy (@ftnfantasy.com) 2026-01-24T00:12:03.071Z
The Pats have really ramped up their blitz rate to 44.8%, as Kimes said on her podcast they were averaging 28% blitz rate in the regular season. And look at all those QB hits.
Giddy up, Stiddy! Take off when you need to. And get the ball out of your hands, my man.
Keep in mind that New England played the Chargers in the Wild Card round, a team with a ton of injuries and the worst O-line in the NFL per Ben Baldwin's pass protection composite rankings. The Texans were 19th on that list.
Plus, Justin Herbert was injured, and C.J. Stroud looked like a rookie out there last week, like he was seeing ghosts.
Denver's No. 2, and was No. 1 almost the entire season with the Bills taking the top spot late. The Broncos have two All-Pros in Garett Bolles and Quinn Meinerz, and they're a strong group overall.
Plus, Luke Wattenberg has been listed as questionable after his 21-day practice window was opened earlier this week. He should be back in the middle of the line tomorrow.
Rich Kurtzman
New England's defensive deficiencies
The biggest glaring weakness from on the Patriots defense is their red zone scoring percentage allowed. They give up touchdowns to opponents in the red zone at a 67.5% clip, which is 30th in the NFL.
Meanwhile, the Broncos are 13th in red zone scoring (57.5%) and they'll need to make the most of their opportunities within the Pats' 20 yard line this weekend. Last week in the Divisional Round, Payton called a great play with a rub route that got Lil'Jordan Humphrey open, and Nix dropped the ball in perfectly, but Humphrey dropped it. Denver had to settle for a field goal when they should've started the game up 7-0.
Along the same lines as the red zone scoring, New England allows opponents to score on 32.2% of all drives, which was 29th.
Finally, they give up touchdowns on a lot of early drives and were 31st in DVOA in the first quarter, per that FTN Fantasy article referenced throughout this piece. The only down side is Denver hasn't scored well in first quarters either.
Of course, in this game, you have to expect Payton to draw up something to get Denver on the board early. He did that last year in the 31-7 drubbing by the Bills in the Wild Card round, unleashing a Nix-to-Franklin bomb on the fifth play from scrimmage. The Broncos were in that game well into the third quarter but Payton got too cautious with his play calling and the Bills offense gained momentum to steamroll Denver.
Prediction
At the end of the day, however you want to consider the Broncos and Patriots easy schedules, they have proven to be the two best teams in the AFC. They both finished the regular season 14-3 and now they go toe-to-toe for the Lamar Hunt Trophy on Sunday at 1 p.m. MT.
That said, New England isn't some unbeatable juggernaut.
They're a good team, but so are the Broncos.
If Nix were playing, this would be a coin flip game. But even with Jarrett Stidham starting, Denver's definitely got a chance to win this thing.
They need to protect the ball on offense, but still manufacture enough points to keep it close. Defensively, they'll need to create turnovers and win that turnover battle, just like they did against the Bills last week. And special teams needs to mind their Ps and Qs because in close games, missed/made kicks, or poor coverage can change the tide.
Last week, I took the Broncos to beat the Bills 27-23. It ended up 33-30.
This week, I'm taking the Broncos to win again, this time 20-17.
Quick Stats
- The Denver Broncos are 8-2 all-time in AFC Championship Games.
- Denver's 4-0 all-time at home in the playoffs against New England. And 2-0 in AFC Championships (2013, 2015).
- A win on Sunday would give Denver the second-most conference championships behind only the Patriots (11). They're currently in a tie with the Steelers, 49ers, and Cowboys.
- Sean Payton is 12-3 with a backup quarterback who's been on his team for at least 2 years. Jarrett Stidham has been on the team for 3 years.
- Payton is currently 1-2 in conference championships, all three of them coming in the NFC with New Orleans.
Patriots vs. Broncos kicks off at 1 p.m. MT at Empower Field at Mile High Stadium. It will be televised on CBS and Paramount+. A win for Denver and they're in Super Bowl LX.
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