Bo Nix vs. Josh Allen: Which QB Runs Best May Determine Divisional Winner

Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills also means Bo Nix vs. Josh Allen.

Allen is the wily veteran at this point, and 8-year pro and in his 7th straight playoffs.

Meanwhile, Nix is only in his second season, but it is his second playoff appearance.

And while there are a lot of differences between the two quarterbacks, one certain similarity is they both like to use their legs. That running by the quarterbacks could determine the winner of this week's Broncos - Bills Divisional Round game.

The Best Running QB Could Decide Broncos vs. Bills

Josh Allen is arguably the best running quarterback in the NFL today. He's not the fastest, but he runs like a Mack truck and goes through defenders. He's almost impossible to stop when the Bills run their version of the Tush Push, and Allen basically always scores when he runs from within the 5 yard line.

To wit, Allen's 79 rushing touchdowns are 23rd all-time in NFL history. He's run for more TDs than any other quarterback; only 22 running backs in history have more.

That's insane.

He also led all NFL QBs with 579 rushing yards this year and his 14 rushing TDs are 3rd behind only Johnathan Taylor and Derrick Henry.

But keep in mind, even with the astronomical numbers Allen is human. Even if he doesn't seem like it.

Rewind to Week 17 and he nearly gave up a silly safety by running backwards. In fact, the play was called wrong and should've been 2 points for Cleveland; the entire ball needed to be outside the end zone and wasn't. But the lasting impact was that Allen injured his right foot on the play.

That foot injury has been bugging Allen since. He didn't play in the team's Week 18 game, resting it, and didn't show signs of it slowing him noticeably against the Jaguars. But you know it's affecting him somewhat.

Then, on his first touchdown run of the day Sunday, Allen got his knee flexed backwards as he ran in. Look carefully at the 3-second mark in the video. Allen grabbed his knee, and then played through the pain.

His injuries may be on the minor side, but if Allen is slowed even a little, that will play into Denver's favor on Saturday.

Of course, he also ran, and then was carried 10 yards on a 4th and 1 Tush Push play Sunday after his knee injury.

Allen is arguably the best quarterback all around in the NFL today because he can make plays like that with his legs, and balance them with beautiful passing to all three levels of the field.

Simply, he's a sensational football player, able to do everything on the football field needed to win games. He's got grittiness by the gallons. He's as tough as a Wyoming whiteout.

And he has to be the focus of the Broncos defense when he's running around in the backfield looking to make a play.

On Sunday, Allen ran for 33 yards on 11 carries; the Jaguars bottled him and James Cook up really well, all things considered. And if it weren't for the two interceptions thrown by Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars may have won the game.

Denver needs to look to replicate that performance.

Broncos pass rush vs. an elite O-line is strength vs. strength

The Denver Broncos offensive line has been phenomenal this year, but the Bills O-line actually passed them in composite analytical measurements at the end of the season.

Meanwhile, Denver's pass rush is the best in the NFL. Not only did the lead the league in sacks, with a new franchise-record 68, they also led the NFL in QB pressures this season. In fact, the Broncos were the only team with 200-plus QB pressures (213) and they led the league with 80 QB knockdowns, too.

Simply, it's going to be strength vs. strength when Allen and the Bills have the ball.

It was the same kind of matchup last season in the Wild Card round, too. But in that game, Denver only sacked Allen twice with 5 pressures on 11 blitzes.

They've got to pressure him and sack him more this year.

And multiple teams have given them a blueprint to a degree. It's no coincidence the three games that Allen was sacked the most, the Bills lost all three contests. The Falcons sacked him 4 times, the Texans got to him a crazy 8 times in November—his lowest-rated game of the year—and the Eagles sacked him 5 times in Week 16. L, L, L.

And yet, Allen thrived under pressure against the Jags.

So, yes the Broncos need to pressure him, but since he's a magician with his legs, the Broncos also have to keep contain. It's going to be a difficult and near-impossible juggling act by EGDEs Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper, as well as the play calling by Vance Joseph. Then again, Bonitto knows how to "juggle" with the 6-7 celly.

One one hand, the Broncos want to hit Allen, force him into turnover-worthy throws, or sack him. On the other hand, they don't want to blitz wildly and allow him to break contain and slash them on the ground.

It's unlikely the Broncos will use a spy on Allen unless it's a long distance on 3rd or 4th down, and more likely they use a zone defense when they believe he will take off on a passing down. That, per Cody Alexander.

One more note on the Bills and their basically unstoppable Tush Push with Allen: They voted to ban it in the offseason.

It's hypocritical for them to use it in games, sure. But, if it's a legal play, I don't see why they wouldn't use it.

If the game comes down to a Tush Push, the Broncos are in trouble because the Bills are great at running the play.

If Denver can keep him to around 30 yards on the ground and only one touchdown (or zero), the Broncos will be in great shape.

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Bo Nix needs to use his legs this week

While Allen is the best running quarterback in the game today, Bo Nix is no slouch.

The difference is, while Allen uses brute force to run through opponents, Nix is at his best in space and running away from guys.

Still, he used his legs less often this season than he did in his rookie year. Sean Payton has likely coached him to do so and stick to the game plan of throwing the ball.

However, the added dimension of Nix running the ball makes the defense focus on him, and he can at times run toward the line of scrimmage and decide to throw the ball.

Like he did to Michael Bandy in the Packers game.

The DB came off Bandy and ran toward Bo before he let the ball loose to the former practice squad receiver. And let him trot into the end zone.

Just like the Broncos defense has to balance pass rush with contain, Nix needs to balance staying in the pocket—especially when it's clean—and taking off for an off-platform throw.

We all know he loves to throw on the move, and he's brilliant at it at times, but Nix can get himself into turnover and accuracy trouble when he relies on throwing on the run too often.

Nix needs to play with calm body control in the pocket. He can't get happy feet or zoomies and flee from a clean protection, or take his eyes off the receivers. Like he did against the Jaguars.

So, what Payton should do is dial up designed runs for Nix this week.

His 359 rushing yards were 11th among QBs and his 5 touchdowns were tied for fifth-most at the position. No doubt, Nix can crush a defense when he runs smartly.

The Broncos QB was at his best running the ball against the New York Giants in week 7. There, he ran 5 times for 48 yards and two touchdowns which were part of his four-touchdown fourth quarter that set an NFL record.

This designed run was brilliantly blocked and executed.

It's worth noting that Nix ran a lot the last two weeks of the regular season, 17 times combined for 91 yards (4.5 YPC) and a touchdown against the Chiefs.

Some of that was part of the game plans and their conservative nature; there's less of a turnover risk running the ball a lot compared to throwing it at a high rate.

And considering how anemic the Bills run defense is, Nix has the opportunity to have his best rushing day of the season (49 yards is his season-high). Buffalo is 28th in rushing yards allowed and 31st in rushing touchdowns given up this year; honestly, it should be a great game for Nix if he uses his legs, as well as RJ Harvey and Co. Plus, with how close this game should be, a few clutch runs from Nix—like the ones against the Texans and Giants—could turn the tide in Denver's favor.

The Bills are 21st in pressures, but they are 11th in pressure rate. Luckily, the Broncos O-line is great at protecting Bo, just like the Bills are with Allen. Nix and Allen are 6th and 7th-best respectively in pressure% against.

Plus, Nix's sack rate (3.47%) is the best in the NFL. He avoids sacks like the plague. For all of his superb play, Allen takes sacks on 8% of dropbacks, which is slightly worse than league average.

Turnovers and taking care of the rock

Both quarterbacks want to protect the football and not turn it over if possible. Lawrence's two picks sank the Jaguars on Sunday.

And while both Allen as well as Nix will be looking to make plays with their legs on Saturday, that can bring some risk in terms of fumbling the ball.

On the season, Allen fumbled 7 times and recovered 2 of them. So he gave the ball away 5 times on fumbles. Meanwhile, Nix has 4 total fumbles, and lost 2 of them.

Of course, some of those fumbles also came in the pocket, at least for Nix and likely for Allen, too.

But it highlights that neither QB should run just for the hell of it. And when they do, taking care of he rock is crucial. Protect that pigskin, young Nix.

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Broncos need Nix's best on the ground and through the air

If the Denver Broncos are going to beat the Buffalo Bills, they need Bo Nix's best. Period.

Yes, using his legs to gain yards on the ground would be great. And it could even decide the game for Denver. But Nix needs to take what the defensive gives him.

If that's a wide open run for 5 or 10 yards, great. If it's a short pass, wonderful. He just can't turn the ball over.

The Broncos are a better team than the Bills. It might be a tiny advantage, but Denver's a slightly better squad this year and they're playing at home.

This game is set to be incredibly close. If the Broncos manage to play a clean game, they will give themselves the best chance of winning. Denver went 5-1 in games without a turnover, with the Week 3 Chargers loss being their only defeat under those circumstances.

Here's hoping he hits on some intermediate and even deep passes on Saturday, too. During his hot run, from Weeks 11-15, Nix was completing more intermediate and deep passes than the rest of the early part of the season combined. But then Payton dialed the offense back against the Chiefs and Chargers to end the regular season.

The Broncos are going to need to hit at least one deep pass, which would compliment their should-be strong run game, from Harvey, Nix, and maybe even Jaleel McLaughlin. Denver went 10-2 this year when they out-rushed their opponents.

Sean Payton, run the damn ball.

Stats and news tidbits

Broncos vs. Bills kicks off at 2:30 p.m. MT on Saturday, Jan. 17. The Bills are currently 1.5-point favorites despite it being in Denver. Looks like the Broncos are trying to be the "overdogs" again.

Broncos are 17-5 at home in the playoffs. That's an incredible .773 winning percentage.

Denver's last home playoff loss was in Jan. 2014. The Broncos lost to Andrew Luck and the Colts in the Divisional Round 24-13.

Chicago is the only other home 'dog this weekend; they're giving up 3.5 points to the Rams in Soldier Field.

Sean Payton is 4-0 in the playoffs coming off the bye, like the Broncos are right now.

Denver is 10-6 all-time in the Divisional Round.

Injuries

Bills Safety Jordan Poyer is out this week. As is wide receiver Gabe Davis, who tore his ACL against the Jags. Another receiver, Tyrell Shavers, also tore his ACL.

Buffalo receiver Curtis Samuel and defensive tackle Ed Oliver had their IR windows opened. That means they could play this Saturday.

On the Broncos, Denver's expected to have linebacker Dre Greenlaw back this week.

Running back J.K. Dobbins is getting closer to returning to the field, but it won't be this week. He and center Luke Wattenberg could return for the AFC Championship Game if Denver makes it.

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