Denver Broncos Bo Nix: The Good, the Bo, and the Ugly
Denver Broncos Bo Nix is a great quarterback at times, mostly in the 4th quarter of games. Why isn't he the rest of the game?
Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix went off last week in the comeback win over the New York Giants.
He became the first-ever quarterback to throw for two touchdowns and run for two more in a fourth quarter. That was Bo-utiful.
But through the first three quarters, he was Bo-rrendous. Just like most of the season.
Denver Broncos Bo Nix Has Been Great Late, Safe and Mediocre Early
Denver Broncos fans love Bo Nix, especially after last week's insane comeback victory.
You better label yourself a Bo-liever or face exile from Broncos Country.
Leveling even deserved criticism of Nix comes with risk, but every quarterback has room to grow, right?
The thing fans outside of Broncos Country don't understand is: We're quarterback spoiled and it was a long, depressing, devastating decade of awful QB play in Denver since Peyton Manning retired.
So, when Nix was merely competent midway through his rookie campaign, we embraced him as the quarterback of the future. Sean Payton hung his hat on Nix, too; there's no way the head coach is making a QB change after drafting him and hyping him up for two years.
But, the Broncos young quarterback has been inconsistent, played safe, and is nowhere near "elite" status.
Let's explore where he's been solid, and where he needs to improve as this 2025 season continues on from this, almost the midway point of the year.
The Good
Bo has been brilliant in fourth quarters. (Outside that late pick against the Colts.)
He's enjoyed his highest completion percentage (68.2) of any quarter, thrown for 4 touchdowns and that one pick, and rushed for more yards (62) than any other quarter.
Obviously, his fourth quarter last week was insane. He went 15-25 for 195 yards, 2 TDs, and ran for 46 yards, 2 TDs.
But don't forget the great fourth quarter against the Eagles. In that game, he went 9-11 for 127 yards and 1 TD.
Rich Kurtzman
Both of those fourth quarters were complete surprises because Nix was a 50% passer in both games' first three quarters. The offense also managed to score only three points, those coming in the first quarter against the Eagles.
All told, he has 494 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT, and a 104.0 rating in the fourth.
And as Nix goes, so go the Broncos. They are second-best in the league with 10.1 points per fourth quarter offensively, tied with Detroit and only trailing the Packers. Meanwhile, the defense has allowed only 4.1 points per fourth quarter.
That's a plus-6 in the game-defining quarter. Only Houston (plus-6.6) is better.
When Trailing
Nix has been great when the game is on the line, and he's also been fantastic when the Broncos are trailing this year.
According to Pro Football Focus, he has thrown for 1,044 yards and 11 touchdowns when trailing this year.
Note: Those TD numbers seem off as Pro Football Reference says he has 3 TDs while leading.
Still, Nix has been fantastic when the Broncos are down. Now he just needs to find a way to channel that near-perfect play while tied or leading.
Rich Kurtzman
The Bo (Bad)
It's no secret the Broncos haven't started well, be it a game or out of halftime.
His numbers in the first and third quarters are much worse than the second and fourth. And his third quarters have been his worst; 224 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 63.8 rating.
It's one thing for the offense to start a game slowly. There are a lot of emotions and a lot of build-up from the week. It's another thing to also start out of halftime slowly. You've already played two quarters that day, so we can't blame it on nerves, right?
I think it leads to the notion that Bo Nix is a rhythm quarterback who gets better as the game goes on. Can he break that habit?
Not running enough
Last year, it seemed like Nix was taking off and running a lot more than this season.
And James Palmer—who talked to defensive coordinators about the Broncos and Nix—discussed this aspect on the latest 89 with Steve Smith and James Palmer podcast. Palmer explained opposing defenses think he'd be a lot deadlier if he used his legs more like in his rookie year.
If you look at the stats, his 24.6 rush yards per game are nearly identical to last year (25.3) and he has 3 TDs vs. 4 all last season. But those numbers were definitely bolstered by the Giants win.
It'd be great to see him tuck the ball and gain yards on the ground more often earlier in games.
The Ugly
The worst part of Nix's game this year has been his deep passing.
As Palmer explained in that same podcast, a defensive coordinator told him if the Broncos aren't running the ball well, they have no worries about Nix beating them deep. He quoted a completion percentage of only 37% from Bo in passes over 10 yards this year.
I looked at every game chart on Next Gen Stats and came up with 43.3%. (They didn't have the passing chart from Week 7.) In those first six games, he connected on 51% (19-37) of passes between 10-20 yards, and only 25% (4-16) of balls over 20 yards.
Note: Fantasy Pros lists Nix with having 18 passes of 20-plus but doesn't note completions.
The issue with his deep passing is not setting his feet and basically running toward the line of scrimmage when he lets it go. That results in an overthrow. It happened three times against the Chargers and once against the Jets.
And when Nix is that bad at throwing intermediate and deep passes, it makes the defense's job that much easier. We saw the Giants suck up close to the line when he threw swing after swing pass in the left and right flat on Sunday.
It's why the G-Men were able to stuff Courtland Sutton at the 2 yard line when the Broncos ran a wide receiver screen on fourth down in the second quarter.
Batted Balls
While we've see a few balls batted at the line of scrimmage in recent weeks, last Sunday against the Giants was really bad. I counted six batted balls by New York defensive linemen.
Russell Wilson used to get a lot of balls batted down at the line of scrimmage, but he's only 5'11" while Nix is 6'2".
That means New York must've seen something in the film that told them they can knock a lot of passes down. And other teams are going to take notice, too.
The Broncos have the best pass-blocking offensive line in the NFL and have all year long per PFF grading and ESPN Pass Block Win Rates. So, that may have led to the strategy of "if you can't get there, get your hands up."
Either way, it's another part of the offense that Sean Payton has to change or tweak. Which is yet another thing that James Palmer noted; a defensive coordinator said they "kind of figured out Sean and he needs to adapt."
Advanced Passing
The analytics don't mix with Bo Nix.
To go along with the poor deep passing, he's leaned on the short passing far too often. Nix throws his passes two yards behind the line to gain on average, which is 8th-worst in the league. His air yards per attempt are 3.2, which is tied for 2nd-worst with Aaron Rodgers behind only Dylan Gabriel.
That short passing is also part of his too safe play.
When it comes to accuracy, he's 8th-worst in on target percentage (73.9) and 7th-worst in bad throw percentage (19.2).
You may see Nix down at No. 27 on this list, which blends PFF grade and EPA and think, "Damn, he's that bad?" But this is actually a vast improvement compared to where he's been all season long. At the beginning of October he was 31st.
Adjusted EPA + PFF Grade blend through week 7
— Ben Baldwin (@rbsdm.com) 2025-10-22T15:50:25.434Z
PFF really doesn't like him; Nix is 30th in the league at a 66.1 passing grade. And he's 22nd in EPA+CPOE. He's also 14th in QBR (55.8) and 23rd in passer rating (87.3).
Look, I'm not trying to cherrypick which analytical categories he's bad in; he's just not a great analytical player at this point in his career.
Ultimately, the Broncos don't need him to be. He needs to make plays when it matters most, protect the ball—which he's done well, 4 INTs—and help his team win games.
And as Nix continues to refine the small things, he will likely improve in those analytical categories, too.
How to Fix Nix
What can Bo Nix do to improve his game?
A lot of little things. And Sean Payton can help him too.
Footwork and Running the Ball
Some of the fixes we've already discussed.
He needs to set his feet before throwing deep. He can't run/jump toward the line as he throws the ball or it'll said his target.
That being said, Nix did a great job on two deep throws to Marvin Mims and Courtland Sutton on that last-second drive against the Giants.
Along those same lines, Nix needs to take off at opportune times and use his great athleticism to keep the defense honest. It's a fine line between running too often and not enough, but the best QBs in today's game run well to compliment their passing.
One more note on footwork is taking the right depth of a drop. Against the Eagles, Nix dropped 11 yards and allowed Za'Darius Smith to sack him instead of dropping 8 yards and staying in the pocket. The Broncos lost 13 yards on the play and were out of field goal range.
He's also had happy feet at times, fleeing a good pocket when he doesn't need to.
Simplify the Offense
Steve Smith said he thinks the reason why Nix has been so good in the 2-minute offense is because it's simplified.
The route concepts are simpler, the timing is simpler; and guess what? It works!
If Payton wants to help his young quarterback thrive, he should consider simplifying the game plan and play calls earlier in the game, too.
That also means running the damn ball when it's a third-and-short or even fourth-and-short. Especially in a goal to go situation.
And as many folks have discussed, Payton's offense isn't about motion at the snap, but it is about using multiple groups on the offensive end. The positive side of that is it forces a defense into running basic concepts.
The downside is players aren't allowed to get into a flow or a rhythm when they're constantly going in and out of the game.
Diversify the Offense
Payton's play calling has been hair-pullingly bad at times.
That screen pass to Sutton on the 2-yard line vs. the Giants was really frustrating. So were the throws at the line of scrimmage. And the swing passes that start with the receiver catching it two yards behind the line.
In the win over the Jets, and last week playing the Giants, it seemed like Payton was coaching the game not to lose.
The Broncos didn't have a single passing yard for nearly two quarters in London against the Jets as they were waiting for the defense to win them the game. And the offense was ultra-safe against the Giants as New York just pulled away further and further.
Payton's called way too many passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. He needs to work in more intermediate passing, and Bo needs to hit on the deep balls more consistently.
I'd love to see more handoffs to Mims in the backfield, which worked great last season. And they need to work the ball to Evan Engram in the middle of the field, somehow, someway.
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