Denver Broncos Odds to Win AFC Championship, Super Bowl LX
Examining the Denver Broncos odds to win the AFC Championship Game and Super Bowl LX. They're big-time underdogs after Bo Nix's injury on Saturday.
The Denver Broncos are one win away from making Super Bowl LX, and yet they have the worst odds of the four remaining teams to take home their fourth Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Currently, the Broncos are 4.5-point underdogs at most sportsbooks, and both DVOA and ESPN FPI have them as the least likely to win it all.
Losing starting quarterback Bo Nix will do that to a team.
But the Denver Broncos aren't out of it yet. 10 backup quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl. Let's explore their odds to win it all.
Denver Broncos Odds to Win AFC Championship
Let's start with the AFC Championship game which pits the Broncos vs. the New England Patriots; the Pats are the betting favorites, especially considering Denver's playing at home, while ESPN FPI gives the Broncos a 40.9% chance to win.
Let's start with the betting side of things. The Broncos were the 1.5-point favorites before Nix's injury was announced, and they're currently 4.5-point underdogs. FTN Fantasy says the Broncos have a 55% chance of covering 4.5 points. That means keeping the game within 4 points on Sunday or winning the game. That's based on DVOA simulations. And some books have Denver giving 5.5 points still, as it's bounced back and forth all week.
Denver can win against the Patriots even with backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham in. One of the reasons is their exceptional defense, which will have to force turnovers by Drake Maye. The Broncos will want to try to keep it a low-scoring game, and if they can they'll possibly pull this thing out.
If Maye and the Pats offense open up an early two-touchdown lead, though, it could get ugly.
Take this for what you will, and bet at your own risk; I think Denver can keep this game within 4 points on Sunday.
Rich Kurtzman
What are the Denver Broncos Odds to Win the Super Bowl?
When Denver beat the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, they were +300 to win the Super Bowl, now they're +1100 or +1200 to win it all. That means a $10 bet on the Broncos to win the Super Bowl would win $110; Denver's a very long shot.
Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks are favorites at +155, the Rams are at +200, and Patriots are +250 to win per FanDuel. (These odds are fluctuating.)
According to DVOA, the Seahawks are again favored, with a 41.1% chance of winning the Super Bowl, and the Pats are second at 32.3%. Meanwhile, Denver is in the "so you're sayin' there's a chance" territory at 6.2%.
Lombardi Chasing 🏆 @aaronschatz.com
— FTN Fantasy (@ftnfantasy.com) 2026-01-20T16:06:10.187Z
If Bo Nix were playing, I'd guess Denver's odds would be much better in terms of DVOA, but the Broncos offense was already the worst unit among these four teams according to advanced analytics. And while Denver's defense is great, Seattle's is much better in DVOA, and LA's is better, too.
I'm not all-in on DVOA as the end-all be-all in terms of how good a team is, but it's an interesting metric to consider.
Finally, there's ESPN Football Power Index. They're a bit more favorable for the Broncos, giving Denver an 12.2% chance* of winning Super Bowl LX, with Seattle again leading the way at 34.9%, LA at 28.8%, and New England at 24.2%.
*Updated on 1/22/26
Before the playoffs kicked off, Denver and Seattle were the DVOA favorites to meet in Super Bowl LX. That's shifted to the Patriots due to Nix's injury.
Rich Kurtzman
Beyond Analytics, Seahawks Pass the Eye Test
While the Broncos narrowly defeated a decent Buffalo Bills team 33-30 in overtime, the Seahawks blew out San Francisco 41-6 last weekend.
Sure, the Broncos-Bills game was better—more people tuned in than for any Saturday program since 1994—but the Seahawks proved again they're the cream of the crop in the NFL.
For all the ball-knowers out there, who've watched this crazy, topsy turvy NFL season from beginning to end, you know this has looked like an NFC Super Bowl year.
The Patriots and Broncos led the AFC, with the easiest and second-easiest schedules respectively; the Pats "didn't play anyone" and the Broncos narrowly won basically every game. They came back an NFL record 12 times in the regular season, and came back to beat the Bills, too.
Meanwhile, the Rams were the best team in the NFL for most of the season, but that all changed when they lost to the Seahawks in mid-December in a Thursday night thriller.
Ironically, after that game I wrote for Mile High Sports that neither the Rams nor the Seahawks are clutch like the Broncos. It's true! The last six drives of regulation included four punts, a missed field goal, and end of half.
But it also seems clear at this point that both the Seahawks and Rams are better teams than the Broncos overall.
I think Denver matches up better with the Rams, however slight the difference is, only because the Seahawks are the most-complete team in the NFL.
Seattle is No. 1 in scoring defense and No. 3 in scoring offense. Their D swarms the ball like no other team does in the NFL today. And they have the No. 1 receiver in the league in Jaxson Smith-Njigba. They lost Zach Charbonnet to injury, but Kenneth Walker is still a solid running back, too.
Both the Rams and the Patriots have been led by MVP finalists in Matt Stafford and Drake Maye. Both offenses are extremely explosive—LA's is the highest-scoring in the league—and both quarterbacks are surrounded by a slew of talented playmakers. Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and Kyren Williams in LA, Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry, and TreVeyon Henderson for the Pats.
If the Broncos had their starting quarterback, they'd have a much better chance of winning Super Bowl LX.
But, In Stiddy We Trust has become a rallying cry for Broncos Country.
Denver can beat the Patriots this Sunday if they pressure Drake Maye and force him to fumble multiple times. The kid is an MVP favorite, but he's fumbled six times in two playoff games, and lost three of them.
Rich Kurtzman
After that, both the Rams and Seahawks present significant and possibly unsurmountable challenges if the Broncos were to make it to Super Bowl LX.
But, as they say, Any Given Sunday.
Broncos - Patriots kicks off at 1 p.m. MT on Sunday at Empower Field at Mile High Stadium on CBS and Paramount+.
Thanks for reading. Please subscribe or leave a tip to help support independent sports writing and The Broncos Blitz. Currently, I'm looking to pay for the hosting fees for the site, as well as licensing photos so I don't have to draw every one for every piece.
