Bo Nix

Denver Broncos Offensive Preview: Run the Ball, Bo Nix Needs to Ball

When the Denver Broncos are on offense against the Buffalo Bills, they'll have an advantage running the ball. Bo Nix needs to ball out, too.

Rich Kurtzman

16 Jan 2026 — 7 min read

Bo Nix running cropped. He's in the Denver Broncos throwback orange and blue jersey. Drawn by Rich Kurtzman

Most everyone is focused on the Buffalo Bills offense vs. Denver's defense, but what happens when the Broncos are on offense could dictate the game's winner. Simply, the Broncos will look to exploit the Bill's bad run defense.

While the Bills offense vs. Broncos defense is strength vs. strength, Denver's O vs. Buffalo's D is more a matchup of who makes the least mistakes could win.

So, how can Bo Nix and Sean Payton's offense have a great day against the Bills?

Denver Broncos need to run the ball

The Denver Broncos must run the ball, and run it well, against the Bills on Saturday.

Luckily for Denver, the numbers are in their favor.

First and foremost, Buffalo is one of the worst run defenses in the NFL today. They give up a massive 128.7 rush yards per game, which is 28th in the NFL. And their 24 rushing touchdowns allowed are 31st.

Cue RJ Harvey and Bo Nix to have a day when running the ball.

Speaking of, Harvey is my pick for the Broncos X-factor on offense.

Why?

He's been a crucial part of Denver's offensive success since Week 10, when J.K. Dobbins went down with the foot injury. And even before Dobbins' injury, the rookie Harvey was putting touchdowns on the board at a high clip.

His 12 touchdowns—7 rushing and 5 through the air—lead the Broncos by far. In fact, he's scored 28% of the team's touchdowns through 17 weeks. That's 10th-most for any one player on any team this year.

Harvey has shown incredible speed, like his 40-yard touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys on a sweep, and sensational hands. He has 47 receptions for 356 yards and those 5 touchdowns through the air. And they're not just on screens and short passes, either. They've come on deeper passes, like his touchdown from 27 yards out against the Texans.

But another metric shows why the Broncos should run the damn ball, and win when they do so.

According to Mina Kimes, since Week 10, the Broncos have been 3rd in success rate in running the ball. That's not counting Bo Nix scrambles. (Success rate is 40% of yards needed on 1st down, 60% on second down, and 100% on 3rd down.)

That high success rate shocked Kimes as well as former Broncos cornerback Dominique Foxworth.

Not just that, but the Broncos excel at running the ball on outside zones. They average 5.3 yards per carry, which is 5th-best in the NFL. Meanwhile, outside zone runs are particularly a weak spot for the Bills. They give up more than 5 yards per carry, and are 25th in the NFL on those plays.

Look, if Mina has those numbers, and now you have those numbers after reading this, Sean Payton has those numbers.

I fully expect the Broncos to exploit the Bills in the outside zone run game, which is exactly what they ran against Dallas on that aforementioned 40-yard run by Harvey.

His size and speed fits better for running the ball outside, and I have a feeling he's going to eat against the Bills tomorrow.

We can't forget about Jaleel McLaughlin, who will get some snaps, too. In fact, he had his two best games of the year in Weeks 17-18, with 81 rushing yards on a strong 6.3 yard per carry average, and one reception for 17 yards.

Run, Bo! Run!

And then there's Bo Nix.

I wrote earlier in the week that Nix's running vs. Josh Allen's running could decide the game tomorrow.

Nix needs to pick his points to take the game into his hands. He does need to run the ball, but not recklessly.

Nate Tice explained today that the Buffalo Bills like to run a "mirror" front and did so with great success against Trevor Lawrence in the Wild Card round. It's basically the modern day spy on the quarterback.

Basically, three down linemen will still rush Nix, with one linebacker dropping back into coverage and keeping an eye on Nix, mirroring him, as he breaks outside and tries to take off. It means the Bills will be dropping 8 in coverage, and that could mean receivers are covered, basically baiting Nix into tucking the ball and running.

One note: The Bills are allowing a league-worst 9.4 yards per QB scramble, so Nix could and should eat on the ground, too.

If he does throw into one of those drop-8 plays, he could turn the ball over. Like Lawrence did. Nix is a bottom-10 QB when it comes to throwing against the zone; he must not turn the ball over on Saturday if the Broncos want to win.

Bo Nix passing needs to be precise, smart

On Saturday afternoon, when the Broncos are passing, all eyes will be on Bo Nix as he goes toe-to-toe with Josh Allen.

And for Nix, this is a huge make-0r-break kind of game. No one expects him to play better than Josh Allen. And he won't have to for Denver to win. Nix just needs to play well, move the offense both through the air and with his legs, and protect the football at all costs.

One advantage the Bills have on Nix is their disguised coverage, which is what Tice and Kimes both talked about this week.

And the Bills will likely play a lot of zone, knowing that Nix is not only bad against the zone, he's also very good against man coverage. And, Buffalo will probably play a lot of 2-high safety looks, which they do a lot of anyway. Nix was 22nd in DVOA vs. 2-high looks compared to single-high safety plays, where he was 13th in DVOA per FTN Fantasy.

So, where does Nix have the advantage?

Outside the numbers, and against the blitz.

First, on the blitz; Nix was 7th-best against it this year, and the Bills blitz the 10th-most of any team, again per that FTN Fantasy preview.

And on outside the numbers throws; Bill Barnwell told Kimes the Broncos are 7th-best in QBR on throws outside the numbers. Denver diehards know a lot of the team's big plays this year to Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, and Pat Bryant were between the numbers and the sideline.

Nix was 5th in the NFL this year in his rate of throws outside the numbers, and nearly 60% of his passing yardage came there.

It makes sense if Sean Payton dials up throws outside and if Nix chooses to throw them. Those throws usually mean one-on-one coverage, which comes with little risk of throwing an interception versus throwing the ball between the hashmarks.

One more tidbit from Kimes: "The Bills defense is much better versus short than intermediate throws, and better at intermediate throws than deep passes."

Nix's 7.5 air yards per attempt were 8th-fewest among 30 qualifying quarterbacks. And Broncos Country knows he throws the ball a ton at, around, and even sometimes behind the line of scrimmage.

While the Broncos will probably do some of that, Nix will have to push the ball down the field.

He not only threw the ball short a lot this year, but he was much better there then in the intermediate or deep passing game.

Bo Nix throws by distance during the reg. szn
— Joe Mahoney (@ndjomo.bsky.social) 2026-01-05T18:01:19.375Z

His completion percentage drops drastically on throws over 10 yards, and 9 of his 11 interceptions came on those longer passes.

"I cannot tell you if he's going to have a good day throwing downfield, or a bad one," Kimes said. "He's entirely capable of a great one. I just don't know."

You're right there with us, Mina.

Nix needs to throw with great accuracy and to do that, he needs to make sure his footwork is right. He needs to stay on balance and throw from a strong base, like he did against the Packers most recently. He also can't get the zoomies or happy feet and bail from the pocket early when there's no pressure bearing down on him. Like he did vs. the Jaguars.

Meanwhile, the Bills are incredibly banged up on both sides of the ball, and they'll be trotting out third-string safety Cam Lewis in all likelihood. So, maybe Nix can exploit that.

Ultimately, the pressure on Nix should be less than usual considering the Bills deficiencies in defending the run game.

If Denver can establish the run and run well, they can control the clock and Nix can become more of a game manager. That's an ideal situation for the Broncos offense.

Even if the Bills offense can score in a moment's notice, controlling the ball will help Denver milk clock and win this game.

Nix has to limit his mistakes, and if possible, not throw an interception. Similarly, his sack rate (3.47%) was best in the NFL, and more than twice as good as Allen's (8%). Avoiding sacks will only help in extending drives and hopefully turning them into touchdowns.

Offensively, the Broncos will have to punch the ball in for more touchdowns than they did to end the season. In fact, over their last three games, the Broncos were only 33.3% in the red zone, a drastic drop from their season average (57.9%).