Film: Bo Nix's Checkdowns Are Hurting Denver Broncos Offense
Multiple clips from the loss to the 49ers show Bo Nix checking the ball down over and over again. He has to start attacking downfield or the Broncos won't win many games.
Bo Nix loves to check the ball down.
"Checkdown" is his middle name. Not Chapman.
He's been playing this way since the Broncos selected him at No. 12 overall in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. But Denver needs him to take more chances and attack downfield, not just throw the ball around the line of scrimmage.
Bo Nix's Checkdowns are Bringing Down Denver Broncos Offense
Currently, Bo Nix is the checkdown king of the NFL.
His 6.0 air yards rank dead-last in the league. He's throwing the ball within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and/or behind the line at times, at an extremely high rate.
We all saw it in the loss to the San Francisco 49ers last week, checking down play after play to throw it to RJ Harvey.
Derrik Klassen, who co-hosts The Athletic Football show, explained there are only three quarterbacks in the NFL who hold the ball at least 2.8 seconds and have a 7.0 air yards per attempt: Nix, Cam Ward, and Geno Smith.
That's not great, Bob.
"He's holding the ball for give or take 3 seconds, which would be some of the highest numbers in the league in any given week," explained Klassen on Bill Barnwell's podcast this week. "And then he is like bottom two, bottom 3 in air yards per attempt."
In fact, his 3.2 air yards per attempt are 41st in the NFL currently. Only Cooper Rush and Jalon Daniels rank lower among qualified QBs.
"So, you're holding the ball just to check the ball down," Klassen continued. "You see him turning down dig routes, not wanting to throw seam routes that are there. He doesn't really rattle 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, get to the backside and throw some of those tough throws. He's 1-to-2, alright I'm gonna check it down. Or 1-to-2, alright I'm going to bail and see what happens."
Daniel Jeremiah is saying the same things on the Rich Eisen podcast.
"I think they've got guys open. You can watch the tape, there's guys there, he's just not throwing the football. Again, that's not the play design that's not the play-call...he's got to be aggressive."
All of Broncos Country is seeing it. And look, if national analysts are seeing it, so are opposing defensive coordinators.
The dude simply refuses to throw the ball downfield, even when he has receivers open.
Bo Nix Film Shows his Reluctance to Make Throws Downfield
It brings me no pleasure to post a video of Dan Orlovsky here, but Orlovsky is right.
On Sunday night, he broke down Nix's refusal to throw the ball downfield.
Dan Orlovsky breaking down where Bo Nix is missing open receivers and checking down instead.
On the first play, Evan Engram is wide open after the play action. And yet he checks it down to Harvey.
The second is even more egregious, but Nix simply doesn't throw the ball over the middle of the field.
On the third play, Sutton is open but Nix moves away from him to the next read too quickly.
And finally, Nix holds the ball instead of hitting Engram early in the play like he was supposed to.
Here's one more play for good measure. Nix has Adam Trautman open for 5 yards and likely more. Instead he moves to check down to Harvey who catches it and gets to where Trautman was on the field, but it's likely the tight end would've gotten more yards on this play.
Now, these are all just from the loss to the Niners. But they're not the only time he's checked down like this in 2026 or throughout his career. It's basically every game.
Nix is too turnover averse
Yes, one of the best things Nix does is protect the football. But at what cost?
He often only throws the ball over 10 yards outside the numbers because his receivers are in one-on-one situations. That minimizes the chances he will throw a pick.
And yes, turnovers are both drive and offense-killers.
But at some point he has to take more risks.
In fact, when we see Nix take more risks it's often at the end of games. He's making the big throws when Denver needs him to most because he doesn't have a choice to be safer.
We saw it in the comeback against the Giants last year. We saw him take risks against the Bills late in the Divisional Round win in January.
And we also saw him throw that ball to Pat Bryant on the "controversial" pass interference play. Now, was that ill-advised? Yes. Did it end up luckily working out for him? Yes.
It's no coincidence that at the end of games he's at his best.
Rich Kurtzman
Is Nix only aggressive when he rolls out?
Klassen made another good point, is we see Nix being aggressive a lot more when he rolls out. Especially when it's designed that way.
"If you want him to be aggressive, you kind of have to boot him out. If you want him to throw tow 16-20 yard stuff. It limits your menu so much. It honestly kind of affects their run game a bit. He's so limited in what he's even trying to do is it's hard to be a high-level quarterback."
It does seem Nix is more willing to be aggressive and throw the ball down the field when he boots out and away from the pocket. He also loves to throw deep balls on the run.
From last year, Week 10:
[Highlight] Bo Nix airs it out and gets picked off by Kyu Blu Kelly
by u/Large_banana_hammock in nfl
He ran toward the line to throw deep against the Chargers twice last season, and in the Jets game, among others. It almost always results in an overthrow.
Inaccuracy Issues
Along those same lines, Nix not only gets happy feet in the pocket at times, he also doesn't set his feet enough before throwing the ball.
"The tough part with watching Bo Nix is so much of what he does is off-platform," Barnwell responded. "So much of what he does is not, 'I have my feet under me, I have a good base, I'm going to fire the football.'"
Those off-platform throws end up being inaccurate.
Nix is currently 6th-worst in the NFL in bad throw percentage at 20.0% per Pro Football Reference. Guys like Jameis Winston, Aaron Rodgers, and Jalen Hurts are worse; that's who he's among in terms of accuracy. Also, Nix only has a 60% completion rate, which is 23rd and the lowest of his career to this point. If he's going to check the ball down a ton, he should have a high completion percentage, just like he did in college when he led the nation his final year, and during his rookie year (66.3%).
Not all of those bad throws are off-platform throws. But many are.
Nix Isn't Using his Legs Enough
Another problem we're seeing from Nix is he isn't running enough.
His rushing numbers by year look like this:
- 2024: 25.3 rush yards per game, 2.6 first downs per game
- 2025: 20.9 rush YPG, 1.5 1D PG
- 2026: 6.3 rush YPG, 1 1D PG
Is Nix scared of breaking is ankle again? Or is less running part of the design by Davis Webb, and something that may change with Sean Payton calling the plays again?
I guess we'll see starting this weekend.
Not Going to Sutton or Waddle Enough
Courtland Sutton has become an afterthought this year. He has a mere 9 receptions for only 86 yards. That's basically two catches per game for the former No. 1 receiver on the team.
Pat Bryant has the same number of receptions for 47 more yards, partially because he's a better YAC receiver than he's given credit for being.
And then there's Jaylen Waddle. The new No. 1 receiver has 16 receptions for 185 yards and 1 touchdown. Waddle's currently on pace for 68 receptions, 786 yards and 4 touchdowns. He's only had one season (2024) worse than that in the NFL.
The Broncos need to feed their best player on offense in Waddle.
They didn't go out and trade a first-round pick for a guy getting No. 2 wideout numbers.
Back to Sutton, he stood up for Bo this week.
"I think we all got our hand in it..." he said of the offense's struggles. "I think it's always unfair that when an offense is struggling that the blame goes directly to the quarterback. He's not the only one out there when we go play."
Sutton's right, he's not the only player on the offense, but he does have the ball in his hands every play.
Nix has Regressed but Could Bounce Back
In nearly every metric, Nix has regressed this year.
We talked about his dip when it comes to running the ball and completion percentages, each of which have dropped off year after year for Nix.
So has his passer rating. He was a 93.3 rated passer in 2024 as a rookie. That fell to 87.8 last year and is down to 80.4 this season.
In advanced metrics, his adjusted EPA per play has also fallen from .106 last year to .018 this year.
The good news is we're only four weeks into the season. Basically the one-quarter point.
Sean Payton is taking over play-calling, and that could end up helping Nix get out of this funk.
Denver desperately needs him to bounce back if they want to compete for a Super Bowl this year.
And he has a great chance of getting back on the right track this week against the terrible Chargers. However, while they're 24th in points allowed 26.5, they are middle of the pack in pass defense and their strength is picking off passes (4).
Denver (2-2) faces the Chargers (0-4) this week in LA with a 2:05 p.m. MT kickoff on CBS and Paramount+.
Thanks for reading! Please subscribe today. Or leave a tip in the tip jar!
New offer: Get a free artwork print of your choice with a paid subscription.
Follow The Broncos Blitz on Bluesky!
Rich Kurtzman was born and raised in Denver Colorado and attended Colorado State University in Fort Collins in the aughts. He's been a professional writer since 2011, covering Colorado State football and men's basketball, as well as the Denver Broncos, for many outlets. Current Denver Broncos work can be found on Mile High Sports. Previous credits include CBS Denver and The USA TODAY Sports Media Group.
Comments ()