Kansas City Chiefs Dynasty is Dead: It's Denver Broncos Time to win the West

The Kansas City Chiefs dynasty is dead.

This is a celebratory week, Broncos Country. I know you were soaking in every bit of that Chiefs loss to the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football; Patrick Mahomes laying face down on the field in disbelief, Travis Kelce tipping a pass into a Texan's hands, Harrison Butker doinking a field goal.

Even Andy Reid screwed up; he killed his team’s momentum when he went for it on 4th down from his own 35.

It was glorious.

Even Taylor Swift is hiding out of sight of cameras because she's so embarrassed by the Chiefs. Probably embarrassed by her washed fiancé, but maybe by the racist chants at the stadium every Sunday.

With the loss to the Texans this week, the Chiefs are officially eliminated from winning the AFC West. That ends their 9-year grip on the division which seemed like it would never cease.

Now that Kansas City can't win the AFC West, and with the Broncos in prime position to do so, Denver has to pounce and take it home.

The Broncos Window is Open

After beating the Chiefs three weeks ago at Mile High, the Broncos proved themselves to be true contenders. Think back to where they were before the 2023 season kicked off; they were a joke. But Sean Payton turned them into a somewhat competitive team that first year. Even though it wasn't full of his players.

Still, Payton's Broncos were set at a 5.5 O/U for wins in 2024. They went 10-7 and blew the doors off Las Vegas. He taught them how to win. Payton started his rookie quarterback Bo Nix and helped the young man grow up over the course of the season. Denver made the playoffs for the first time in nine years.

Even then, not many expected the jump in play or in the standings that we've seen this year. Denver's won 10 straight, they sit at 11-2 with four games to play, and they're in prime position to win the AFC West.

It doesn't stop there, the Broncos are in perfect position to become the AFC's No. 1 seed this year. And they have a real, true, legitimate shot at winning Super Bowl LX.

Denver's time is now because, not only are the Broncos playing some of the best football in the NFL, but because there are a ton of typical contenders who are down and out.

The Chiefs now have a 12% chance of making the playoffs. The Ravens just lost to the sorry Steelers and Baltimore was a favorite to win it all before the season; both John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin could be out this year. After their fantastic start, the Colts lost Daniel Jones for the season to an Achilles tear and broken leg, and Philip Rivers came out of retirement at 44 to play for them. The Bengals are all but eliminated from the postseason due to Joe Burrow's injury early in the year, and the Patriots are—much like the Broncos—untested at 11-2.

The NFL is Wide Open: Denver Broncos Time is Now

The NFL is wide open right now. It’s time for the Denver Broncos to capitalize.

Broncos BlitzRich Kurtzman

The biggest hurdle on the AFC side of things is the Buffalo Bills, currently 9-4, who have had their own issues this year like stopping the run. But they have the playoff experience and probably the best QB in the game right now in Josh Allen.

In the NFC, other contenders like the Lions are barely hanging onto playoff hopes, the Eagles are crashing out, and the Buccaneers' ship sank. The Rams and Seahawks are the most formidable teams on that side of things, and probably 1, and 2 in terms of best teams currently.

It's a weird year in the NFL. Parity abounds.

The Broncos need to capitalize.

Denver Broncos have best odds to win Super Bowl in AFC

The Denver Broncos are the AFC team with the best chances of winning Super Bowl LX according to ESPN's Football Power Index.

Their 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season project the Broncos to be the AFC's top dog. And they make many projections, so let's quickly go through them all.

AFC West Win

Winning the division is usually the first goal for most teams. That's because it guarantees a playoff spot and a top-4 seed, which brings along at least one home postseason game.

Denver's got an 86% chance of winning the West, with the Chargers down at 14%.

Bryan Knowles' numbers match up closely, with an 88.3% chance of winning the West. He also breaks down how the Chargers could win, looking at each game remaining.

Denver Divisional Round Game?

Per ESPN FPI, the Denver Broncos have a 74.5% chance of getting out of the first round. That's likely partially so high because they're guaranteed a Divisional Round game if they're the No. 1 seed. They'd get that coveted bye.

AFC Championship Game

Next up is the AFC Championship Game, which the Broncos also have the best odds to make in the conference at 39.9%. As of right now, a good goal for Denver is to win a playoff game this year. That would be a positive step in the right direction for the team and the culture.

This was technically still a rebuilding year for the Broncos, but now that the window is officially open, they need to start winning playoff games and build their experience in the postseason.

If they're the No. 1 seed, a single playoff win would mean the Broncos first AFC Championship Game since 2015.

What Odds do the Denver Broncos have of Making Super Bowl LX?

The Broncos odds of making Super Bowl LX is 21.5%, the highest among all AFC teams per ESPN FPI. If we look over to the NFC, the LA Rams have the best chances on that side of the bracket, at 29.4%. Even with their loss to the Carolina Panthers in Week 13, the Rams are still regarded as the best team in the NFL by many and Matt Stafford is certainly in the running as MVP.

What are the Broncos Odds of winning Super Bowl LX?

Finally, we get to the big game and bringing home the franchise's fourth Lombardi Trophy; the Broncos have a strong 9.6% chance of winning the Super Bowl. Only the Rams (18.3%) are higher, and the Packers are tied with Denver.

Speaking of the Packers, the Broncos face probably the toughest team they have all year this Sunday at Mile High. More on that in a minute.

Bettors Like the Broncos too

It's not just ESPN FPI that likes the Broncos chances of winning the Super Bowl at this point. The bettors are starting to like Denver to win it all, too. This chart shows the Broncos have an 18% chance of winning the AFC and making the Big Game, with both the Patriots and Bills with the same chances. Buffalo has a slightly better (9%-8%) chance of winning it all.

These odds from Brovada and the ESPN FPI odds are quite similar, only a few percentage points off when you compare the two.

That means the Broncos basically have a 1-in-5 chance of making the Super Bowl this year.

Take that in for a second. Let it breathe. Enjoy it, Broncos Country.

This has already been a special season and we're in for a great run down the stretch.

Broncos vs. Packers: A Clash of Titans

It all starts this Sunday with the Packers (9-3-1), another legitimate contender for the Super Bowl.

Jordan Love has been balling out. As this chart shows (up and to the right are good. He's way up there and quite right).

But, Love has faced a bunch of mediocre defenses this year. Only the Browns were a top defense they've played, and the Packers lost to Cleveland 13-10 in September. Even the Browns are only 17th in points allowed, but they are: 2nd in yards allowed, 1st in passing, and 2nd in sacks. (They also beat Minnesota, a decent defense.)

Denver is clearly better than the Browns, too. The Broncos are currently 4th in points allowed (18.1 PPG) and leads the league in sacks, red zone, and 3rd down percentages.

Where the Broncos and Browns are similar is that dynamic pass rush. Denver's totaled an insane 55 sacks this year; Cleveland has 44 in 2nd. The Browns sacked Love a season-high 5 times in the Week 3 win, they picked him off once, racked up 7 QB hits, and limited him to 183 yards passing.

That sack-first recipe seems to be working on Love this year; the Eagles won 10-7 over the Pack a month ago by keeping him out of the end zone and sacking him 3 times, hitting Love 8 times, and forcing him to lose a fumble.

The blueprint is there for Denver to beat Love up front, and they're a more talented team than the other two.

Bo in a State of Flow: Nix has Been Great as of Late

Bo Nix has been on fire the last three games. He’s playing with confidence and a consistency that’s helping the Broncos stay on this 10-game win streak.

Broncos BlitzRich Kurtzman

Similarly, Bo Nix—who's been hot lately—will be facing a talented pass rush from the Packers. Green Bay is 9th in pressures with 119, 11th in sacks (33); Micah Parsons (12.5 sacks) and Rashan Gary (7.5) are elite EDGEs.

Nix, however, has the best offensive line in the league. Especially in pass protection.

Again, up and to the right is good, down and to the left is bad. The Packers' O-line is good, the Broncos' is elite.

That should help keep Nix cleaner than Love on Sunday. And Nix needs the protection because when he has a clean pocket, he's been able to set his feet and deliver the football with confidence and accuracy as of late.

3rd Down and Red Zone

Another interesting matchup for this game is Green Bay's offense on 3rd downs and in the red zone vs. Denver's in those situations.

The Broncos have been the best 3rd down (30.9%) and red zone (40.0%) defense all season long.

Meanwhile, the Packers offense is 1st on 3rd downs (50.6%) and 2nd within the opponent's 20 (68.1%).

Obviously, 3rd downs are the money downs; that's where the QB earns his money. They're crucial to sustaining drives and eventually scoring. Similarly, the red zone is the most important part of the field for both sides of the ball. Whichever team wins in those areas will win the game.

It really is a clash of the titans when the Packers are in the red zone.

Special Teams

If Denver stops them and forces field goals, another interesting wrinkle to this game is former Bronco Brandon McManus is the Pack's kicker currently. He's having a so-so season at 15-21 on field goals (71.4%, 34th) while Wil Lutz has made 87% (16th).

The Broncos should have an advantage both in the kicking game and the return game.

Sean Payton revealed he built the Broncos by getting the offensive line squared away and in the kicking game after last weeks win over the Raiders.

It came up when he was asked about Marvin Mims, who had his first career punt return touchdown last week.

“And then, I don’t know what the numbers are, but when you score in special teams or you score on defense, you’re over 80% winner,” Payton said Sunday. “It was amazing, because from my angle, which was pretty right there, to see Mims come out of that pile, that was a big play.

The Game of the Week™️ for CBS—Hello Friends, and Tony Romo—should be close, and could be decided by special teams.

Just like the rest of this arduous stretch run, and the playoffs.

The time to become battle tested is now for the Broncos.

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