NFL Wild Card Rooting Guide: Best and Worst-Case Scenarios for Denver Broncos
With the Denver Broncos on the bye, this NFL Wild Card rooting guide explores the best-case and worst-case scenarios for them this weekend.
Welcome to the playoffs. NFL Wild Card weekend is about to kickoff on Saturday, and the Denver Broncos are resting at home.
Meanwhile, there are six great games in three days, and six strong teams from the AFC going toe-to-toe.
The Broncos earning the No. 1 seed already got them a great advantage—the road to Super Bowl LX goes through Denver—but depending on who wins this weekend, Denver could get some more help in terms of matchups.
Let's take a look at the best-case and worst-case scenario for the Broncos when it comes to this Wild Card weekend.
NFL Wild Card: Best-case scenario for Broncos
The Denver Broncos have their best chance of making the Super Bowl if the LA Chargers, Buffalo Bills, and Pittsburgh Steelers all win.
Unfortunately for Denver, that's not likely, but this is the playoffs and crazy things happen.
For more on each opponent and how they match up with the Broncos:
Rich Kurtzman
Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday Jan. 11, 11 a.m. MT
It sounds crazy to say, but the Broncos are rooting for the Bills to win and move onto the Divisional Round. That's because the Jaguars are insanely hot right now. They are white hot.
And, as Mina Kimes and Dominque Foxworth said on their playoff team-ranking podcast, they're the most complete team in the postseason.
Trevor Lawrence is playing the best football of his life—he was just named the AFC Offensive Player of the Month—and he finally has playmakers around him. Receiver Parker Washington is having a breakout year, with 847 yards and 5 touchdowns, gaining more yardage than Brian Thomas, who had 5 TDs himself this year. And Travis Etienne went over 1,100 yards with 7 scores, while T. Law ran 9 touchdowns in too!
On the flip side, this is probably Josh Allen's worst team since 2019, his second season. And Allen's injured foot is complicating things a bit, although he still ran for 51 yards, albeit in a loss, against Philly in Week 17. That was his last game action as he sat last week. The Bills still rolled the sorry Jets, though, as one of three massive blowouts last weekend.
Buffalo's still the best running team and Allen can still come back on anyone—see: that Philly game referenced a few seconds ago minus his bad throw on the 2-pointer, and the Patriots win. Although, their defense is pretty suspect right now.
The Bills knocking out the Jags would be huge because no one wants to play Jacksonville right now. Even if they have hardly any experience in the playoffs. And Denver just got crushed by them three weeks ago.
Unfortunately for Buffalo, they've lost 8 straight playoff road games. But, the Bills are a 1-point favorite despite the game being in Jacksonville.
Again, rooting for the Bills to beat the Jags is kind of a lose-lose situation. Buffalo beat the Broncos in the playoffs last year, and even if these are two very different teams, the Bills have a ton of playoff experience.
Plus, as Mina said, "The Bills are the most matchup dependent team in the playoffs. If you can stop the run and run the ball, they're in trouble." Denver couldn't stop the run against them last postseason and the Broncos run game is teetering on non-existent.
But, Denver could dodge the Bills if things work out just right.
LA Chargers vs. New England Patriots, Sunday Jan. 11, 6 p.m. MT
In the most ideal scenario, the Chargers "Bolt Up" and knock off the Patriots in Foxborough.
New England has a dynamic offensive attack. Drake Maye will possibly be the NFL MVP this year and led the league in passer rating (113.5) and completion percentage. And last week he didn't have to do much as his beastly running back tandem ran for 184 yards and 4 TDs combined in the blowout of the Dolphins.
Defensively, they're fourth in points allowed (18.8 PPG) but they're 30th in red zone D. Their No. 2 scoring offense wants a shootout; that doesn't match up well for the Broncos.
On the other hand, the Chargers rested against the Broncos last week. And the Broncos won relatively easily, 19-3, despite shaky offense. If Justin Herbert and his fractured left, non-throwing hand are feeling better, they could conceivably upset the Patriots on the road. Herbert has a decent amount of playmaking talent on offense this year—Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, and Quentin Johnston all had more than 700 receiving yards this year and combined for 18 touchdowns.
Their defense is 9th in scoring (20.0 PPG), 5th on 3rd downs (35.2%) and 4th in the red zone (46.9%). They're extremely good against the pass, which is why it was surprising when C.J. Stroud threw all over them early in Week 17.
The Pats are only 3.5-point favorites, meaning it should be a really close game since home teams get 3 points.
If Jim Harbaugh's Chargers beat the Patriots, LA will be playing in Denver for the second time in three weeks. That's a game the Broncos could, and should, win.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans, Monday, Jan. 12, 6:15 p.m. MT
Finally, Broncos Country should be rooting for the Steelers on Monday night.
Pittsburgh's the worst AFC playoff team and Houston has a deadly defense, so the Steelers knocking out the Texans would eliminate one more scary team for Denver.
Aaron Rodgers is 42 and has a ton of playoff experience. But his best days are clearly behind him. One bonus for him this week will be getting DK Metcalf back, which will help his otherwise nonexistent receiving corps. What the Steelers do have is a strong one-two running back punch with Jalen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell.
Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, the Texans run defense is fourth in yards allowed, and second in scoring (17.4 PPG). Houston, like the Broncos, is a defense-first team. And, just like the Broncos, their offense goes as C.J. Stroud goes.
Stroud is susceptible to making mistakes, like the 2 INTs vs. the Chargers, and some otherwise bland performances. His 92.9 passer rating is 17th in the league. Rodgers' is 14th, (94.8).
For Pittsburgh to win, in a game where they're 3-point underdogs, they've got to find a spark in the passing game. Another nugget of information: The Texans are second-last in rush success rate per Mina Kimes.
If the Bills, Chargers, and Steelers all win, LA will be in Denver next weekend, and Buffalo will be in Pittsburgh.
Worst-Case Scenario for the Denver Broncos
The worst-case scenario in this NFL Wild Card weekend is the Patriots, Jaguars, and Texans win.
Although, it would make for some sensational Divisional Round games.
New England and Jacksonville are quite similar; both want to run up the score with explosive passing. Each have a young quarterback who can take over a game depending on the situation, and both defenses are underrated.
Meanwhile, Denver and Houston are near clones of one another.
A Broncos-Texans tilt would likely be another low-scoring battle. Denver beat Houston in Texas in early November 18-15. Stroud was hit in the head as he slid late on a run, and missed two-thirds of the game. Meanwhile, dazzling running by Bo Nix in the fourth quarter helped set up the game-winning field goal. A graphic during the game said he was better than John Elway, and through 26 starts, Nix's numbers definitely were.
The Texans are a team the Broncos can beat in the Divisional Round, albeit a more difficult matchup than the Chargers. And a low-scoring game means Denver would have to be extremely careful with the ball, because one turnover could turn the tide. A win and Denver would have to face either the Patriots or Jaguars.
Rich Kurtzman
Mina Kimes and Dominique Foxworth on the Broncos
As mentioned earlier in the article, Kimes and former Broncos DB Foxworth ranked all NFL playoff teams on their recent podcast; they had Denver 5th. Behind the Jaguars, Rams, Seahawks, and Texans in that order.
They did include the Broncos in the top tier of teams, but both had questions about Denver.
Quarterback "accuracy and consistency is the question mark," said Foxworth.
"They have a defense that sets a floor, and an offense with a high ceiling," Kimes said of the Broncos. "The offense also has a low floor. Not super-low. They have a coach who I trust as much as almost anyone here, playoff games, matchups...That sort of stuff really matters this time of year."
"I wish I felt better about the run game...I feel like that about a lot of teams though," Kimes finished.
These are fair and legitimate concerns for the Broncos going into the playoffs.
Broncos Country knows this team is defense-first, and they must be much better on offense than what we saw the last three weeks of the regular season. They went 3-8 (37.5) in the red zone the last three games which is way behind their scoring percentage for the entire season (57.9%, 13th).
No matter who Denver plays in the Divisional Round, if Nix and the offense don't show up, it'll be one-and-done. Which would be an utter failure after going 14-3 and earning the No. 1 seed.
For now, enjoy the games this weekend. Hopefully we'll have some exciting ones to kickoff the playoffs.
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