Red Flags for Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix Keep Popping Up

Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix is a good quarterback. Is he a great one? No, not yet.

Broncos Country believes their team would've represented the AFC in Super Bowl LX if Nix was healthy. And I agree.

But, would Denver have beaten the Seahawks? Eh, probably not.

Still, we should give Nix his props for leading the Broncos to a 14-3 season, including a phenomenal game against the Bills in the Divisional Round.

While still acknowledging he has a handful of glaring weaknesses he needs to overcome to reach top-10, or even elite status.

Red Flags for Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix Keep Popping Up

Before the "Bolievers" get too mad, check out my piece on Nix leading the NFL last year in negative play rate.

Nix simply does not take sacks or turn the ball over, especially when you compare it to his league-leading attempts last year.

But, that ability to not take negative plays also helps excuse his issues.

Nix is also the best quarterback the Broncos have had since Peyton Manning retired 11 years ago, and I think the kid has a chance to be great.

Where exactly can Bo Nix improve?

Failed Completions

Nix led the league for a second straight year in failed completions per FTN Fantasy.

What exactly are failed completions? They're similar to success rate from receivers or running backs; a failed completion is a completed pass that doesn't gain 45% of yards on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd down.

This metric isn't going to help Nix shake the "checkdown merchant" nickname he's earned through Sean Payton's offense that has been extremely screen-heavy the last two years.

Just as I touched on earlier, his high amount of failed completions (110, the highest in the NFL) were partly due to him throwing the ball more than any other quarterback in the league.

But Nix's 28.4% rate of failed completions were also 26th out of 38 qualifying quarterbacks.

The good news is, Denver's quarterback has already shown some strides in this statistic over the course of his first two years. Bryan Knowles of FTN Fantasy explained that Nix's 45.8% failed completion rate in the first four games of his career were the worst stretch as he was incredibly conservative with the football.

But, Knowles writes:

That progression continued over the course of 2025, too. In Weeks 1-9, Nix had 60 failed completions and a failed completion rate of 30.5%, roughly where he ended the year in 2024. In Weeks 10-18, he had just 50 failed completions and a failed completion rate of 26.2% – right in the neighborhood of Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert or Jared Goff. That’s what you want to see out of a young passer: continued growth and development. 

Meanwhile, his successful completion percentage was 45.4%, which also ranked 26th out of 38 qualifying QBs.

How Nix can fix: Bo should be more aggressive and complete more passes for a greater percentage of needed yards. It'll be interesting to see if Davis Webb's play calling changes how the Broncos attack.

Air Yards Conversion Rate

Air yards conversion measures how efficiently a quarterback turns "air yards"—distance the ball travels in the air—into actual receiving yards or completions.

Simply, it's the QB's passing air yards that turn into actual passing yards. It's kind of like when a guy runs from sideline to sideline to avoid a tackle but only ends up gaining 3 yards. He ran 55 yards, but only actually gained 3. But also, a low air yards conversion rate means there were drops (Denver 2nd in drops last year) and missed throws.

Nix converted a mere 41% of his air yards, which put him in a tie for 29th with Baker Mayfield.

This, from Denny Carter of NBCSports.com, which lent itself nicely to the title of this piece:

We saw a bunch of metrics-based red flags for Nix in his second season, even as the Broncos ran roughshod through the weakened AFC. That Nix had an air yards conversion rate below Cam Ward with a perfectly average air yards per attempt — meaning he wasn’t pushing it downfield at an unusual clip — is highly concerning. Nix’s drop back success rate was somehow below that of Justin Fields and Bryce Young. Nix since the start of the 2024 season ranks 31st out of 41 qualifying QBs in success rate. And if you’re wondering whether Nix’s air yards numbers are much different from his rookie campaign, they were not. He converted 42 percent of his air yards in 2024. That combined with the (potentially) chronic ankle problems could spell trouble for the Broncos in 2026 and beyond.

Carter's criticisms are spot-on. The analytics don't love Bo's play, even if Broncos Country loves the outcomes of games. He's charted out in the middle of the pack or worse when it comes to EPA vs. PFF grade, or EPA vs. CPOE where he's in the bottom-third.

He's not an overly efficient guy, he's a winner and a gamer, damnit!

It's true. He makes big plays when the game is on the line, which isn't something you can teach. Throwing the ball with more accuracy and learning to make better reads is something that can be taught, however, which is why I think he can become great.

How Nix can fix: Bo has to hit on his deep balls more often. That will help improve this metric and it will mean the offense is moving the ball more frequently on passing plays. Part of the issue here is also the number of screens and throws behind the line of scrimmage Payton called last year.

Middle-of-the-field Passing

Bo Nix has been a bit of a boom or bust kind of quarterback through his first two years. He throws a ton (69.4%) of his passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. And on throws longer than 10 yards, his completion percentage plummets like rocket ship returning to earth.

His intermediate throws were his lowest-graded in terms of passer rating (64.9) when compared to behind the line of scrimmage, short, and deep balls. And his 73.3 grade from Pro Football Focus made it his second-worst depth in 2025. It should be noted that grade improved a lot (59.4) vs. 2024, but is still a bit worrisome. Including that those intermediate throws represented 6 interceptions of his 11 on the season.

When we look at not only the intermediate depth, but the between-the-hashmarks numbers, his 65.5 passer rating was the worst of any quadrant on the passing chart. The only place he was lower rated by PFF was on intermediate throws to the right.

And Nix's 16.3% pass percentage was third-lowest per FTN Fantasy and Scott Spratt.

When he's not checking down, Nix is usually throwing it deep on the outside of the field.

Part of the reason he doesn't throw it to the middle of the field is because he wants to protect that negative play rate, and Nix is very bad against the zone vs. man defense.

According to Mina Kimes, Nix was 3rd in QBR vs. man coverage. He was 21st vs. zone. That's a huge discrepancy.

When you choose to target Courtland Sutton on deep one-on-one routes, you're limiting the chances for turnovers. Conversely, throwing over the middle of the field has a much higher chance of balls being picked off.

How Nix can fix: Jaylen Waddle. I talked about it pretty extensively in the following piece, but Waddle is a magician in the middle of the field. He'll be a surefire target for Nix, and when he's running deeper routes, his mere presence will open up the middle of the field more for tight ends like Evan Engram, too.

What Jaylen Waddle Brings to Denver Broncos Offense

Jaylen Waddle brings a lot to the Denver Broncos offense. He’s a huge deep threat, sure, but his most valuable asset may be intermediate routes and beating zone coverages.

Broncos BlitzRich Kurtzman

Bo Nix is a Top-20 QB

If Nix wants to crack the top-10 among quarterbacks, he has a lot of work to do.

The aforementioned stats cover a lot of his deficiencies. And there are some relatively easy, straightforward ways to improve in those metrics.

When I say here that Bo Nix is a top-20 QB, it's not intended to hate on him, but objectively ranking him.

Here's where Bo Nix's stats ranked in 2025:

• Passer rating: 26th (87.8)
• EPA/Play: 17th (.101)
• Success rate: 25th (44.7%)
• CPOE: 24th (-1.2)
• Air yards: 22nd (7.5)
• QBR: 16th (58.3)
• PFF passing grade: 14th (76.1)
• Sack percentage: 1st (3.47)
• Negative play rate: 1st (5.3%)
• Passing yards: 8th (3,931)
• Touchdowns: 9th (25)
• Interceptions: 31st (11)
• Completion percentage: 24th (63.4%)

After taking in all of those stats, where would you rank Nix?

Right around 20 seems fair.

Nix led the league in pass attempts last year. He was 6th in that category in 2024. I'm not sure he can improve in a lot of these advanced metrics if he continues to throw the ball that frequently.

Denver and Webb/Payton should try to find a bit more semblance of balance in the offensive attack instead of putting so much of the offense's success on Nix's shoulders. Plus, teammates need to step up and limit drops. 6.3% of Nix's passes were dropped last year (6th) and 294 yards were missed (3rd).

It was great to see Nix not go through a sophomore slump last year, and I expect him to take a major step forward in this, his third season.

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Rich Kurtzman was born and raised in Denver Colorado and attended Colorado State University in Fort Collins in the aughts. He's been a professional writer since 2011, covering Colorado State football and men's basketball, as well as the Denver Broncos, for many outlets. Current Denver Broncos work can be found on Mile High Sports. Previous credits include CBS Denver and The USA TODAY Sports Media Group.

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