Trying To Figure Out if Bo Nix is a Franchise Quarterback

The Denver Broncos and their fans desperately want Bo Nix to be a franchise quarterback, but we just don't know yet if he is or not.

Nix has been incredibly inconsistent and streaky both of his professional seasons. And while he's not going through a sophomore slump, he has regressed a bit since his rookie year.

Is Bo Nix a Franchise Quarterback?

As of now, is seems like Nix is leaning closer to "no" as in, he's not a franchise quarterback, than yes, he is one.

I just want to start out by saying I don't label myself a "Boliever" and never have. I'm a diehard Denver Broncos fan and have been since I was a kid. But that also means I've seen an ungodly number of QBs come through the Mile High City since John Elway hung up his cleats while crying and snorting on television.

In the time after Elway retired, there were a bunch of chumps who played here, and one pretty damn good quarterback in Jake "The Snake" Plummer. Between Elway and Manning, there were even two different first-round picks the Broncos made at quarterback. Jay Cutler and then Tim Tebow.

Cutler basically said he was better than John Elway when he said he had a stronger arm. Which is to say he threatened Elway's god-like status. Tebow basically thought he was Jesus, kneeling and praying to God every week.

Those guys both stunk.

Then, the Broncos landed Peyton Manning and he worked out even better than Elway the GM probably expected. Especially so late in his career and after the neck fusion surgeries that Manning underwent.

The Broncos went to two Super Bowls, enjoyed the greatest offense in the history of the NFL—with records that stand 12 years later—and won a Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Since Manning, the chump-o-meter has gone off the charts. There have been an incredible 14 quarterbacks since Manning retired in 2015; The Sheriff riding off into the sunset on the shoulders of the No Fly Zone defense.

Denver drafted five of the 14 quarterbacks, and the rest were veteran retreads. Both Paxton Lynch and Bo Nix were taken in the first round, while Brock Osweiler and Drew Lock were taken in the second. And Trevor Siemian was taken in the seventh round.

Obviously, GMs are more likely to stick with the guy they take than a veteran journeyman type guy, and they each got their fair shot.

The journeymen included Teddy Bridgewater—who, for my money, has the greatest quarterback name in the history of the world—Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, and of course, Russell Wilson.

Before Wilson it was Lock. Lock was the most divisive player in Denver Broncos history since Tim Tebow. Tebow brought staunch Christians as fans who never watched a Broncos game in their life before him. He won, a lot, but was an awful QB, so "real" Broncos fans didn't care for him much.

Conversely, Lock was seen as the savior of the franchise by half of the fanbase that defended him until the very end. And they argued he didn't get a fair shot even though he got basically the entire 2020 season to prove himself, outside of the games he violated masking protocol during the pandemic.

Neither of those guys lived up to the superhuman expectations.

Nor did Wilson, who was fairly divisive too until it was clear he didn't have "it" anymore.

And considering Elway was the gunslinger for 16 years, and then Manning was the man for four seasons, Broncos fans are rightfully desperate for a franchise quarterback.

As a fanbase, Broncos Country has been quarterback spoiled. That means we have high standards for QBs. But we also know when a guy has "it" or not.

Well, most of the time anyway.

Bo Nix has been the most complicated quarterback since Manning.

Sometimes he has "it." But rarely for entire games. At least he has been his best self during fourth quarters, which, if you had to pick a quarter it would be that one for your quarterback to be his best.

The Dallas game this year, and the Colts loss were his two best contests statistically this season, both his 100-plus rated games. But in both of those, he threw a pick, and the one late in Indy helped the Colts win.

He had seven more 100-plus rated games last season, but also, the same number—nine—sub-70 rated games. All the rest have been somewhere in the middle.

When he's on, Nix is on. When he's off, he's awful. The other third of the time, he mediocre.

That's why I think it's ridiculous for some to call for his benching—no offense to Jarrett Stidham but the Broncos have no chance with him at QB—and Nix not only deserves the rest of this season, but all of next season at the minimum to prove himself.

And likely, he'll get all four years on his rookie deal to do so. That's when the difficult decision of either to extend him for a $200 or $300 million deal.

What we've seen play out is another division of Broncos Country. The "Bolievers" think he's definitely the guy, while some think he should be benched. I like to think there are at least a handful of us who are still trying to wait and see, to let him continue to learn and grow in this instant gratification business of the NFL.

Nix has been bad lately

Still, Bo Nix has been bad lately.

He now has thrown interceptions in three straight games, even if he was otherwise brilliant against the Cowboys. The Broncos won despite him vs. the Texans (outside of two drives in the fourth) and the Raiders.

Last night's win over Las Vegas was his worst of the season. It was his lowest passing yards (150), with 2 interceptions to tie a season-high, and his lowest passer rating of the year (54.2). In fact, it was the second-lowest passer rating of his career, with only his first NFL start (47.5) being worse.

Versus the Texans, Nix was under 50% passing, but did come alive for the team's single touchdown drive of the day, along with the 2-point conversion. Then, he finally used his legs on the team's last drive to set them up for the game-winning score.

When we look at this season, Nix's completion percentage has slipped from 66.4 last year to 60.9 this year, largely due to the last two games.

He's also had a surge of turnovers as of late. The young quarterback doubled his interceptions from four to eight over the last three games.

Still, he leads the NFL in touchdowns by a quarterback with 21—18 passing and 3 rushing—it can be complicated to know what to make of him.

If we get away from the stats—you don't even want to see the analytics—and into his play, there are many issues you can witness.

Footwork

The most common issue people notice is Nix's footwork. He doesn't set his feet, or gets happy feet, or runs for no reason at all.

After the special teams came up with a punt block, securing the ball at the Raiders 12 yard line, the offense lost two yards on three plays. It was infuriating.

On the second down play, tight end Evan Engram ran a wheel route and was open in the end zone. Nix not only missed him, he threw off-balance.

Other times, his footwork issues present themselves on deep throws. He's overthrown Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, and Troy Franklin numerous times this year. And on almost all of them, he's run toward the line of scrimmage as he threw.

This was the most recent one. It was also an issue because that play came on 2nd down.

Like, what are you doin, buddy? It's second down here! The guy is double-covered. You forced the ball in and turned it into a punt.

Ironically, it was better than a bunch of Crawshaw's punts on the night. And yet, still on 2nd down.

Hurried, Scared, Unsettled in the Pocket

For basically this entire season, the Denver Broncos offensive line has been No. 1 when looking at multiple metrics.

And yet, Nix makes it look like he's always getting pressured. He's hearing footsteps and playing scared.

Usually, guys will play that unsettled when they are rookies. But Nix is closing in on his 30th start, not his 3rd. It's usually a sign the game is moving to fast for him to process, which is a bad sign if that's the case.

Not only is he hurried, Chase Daniel says Nix isn't seeing open receivers. Which is a bad sign because Daniel and Payton are buddies.

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Nix has Regressed in Year 2

The stats are showing that Nix has regressed in his second season. It's a slight regression, and not a full-on sophomore slump, but he's playing worse football overall.

Even a slight slip, which is what we're seeing, is important when you're talking about a player this young. Nix needs to continually grow to be better and eventually reach that top-15 or top-10 (?) play.

And as time goes on, more and more tape is put out there for defenses. They know what he's going to do, and what Sean Payton wants to do.

That's been throw the ball near or even behind the line of scrimmage. It was that was last year, and it's only continued this season.

Looking at this NexGen Stats passing chart of his entire season, it becomes clear very quickly where he's throwing. Two-thirds of his throws are within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Not only is he not accurate in the intermediate (10-20) range, nor on deep balls, but he doesn't even try in those areas. Especially in the middle of the field.

This information is available. Opposing teams are paying attention.

As I wrote in The Good, The Bo, and The Ugly piece from three weeks ago, James Palmer has been told by defensive coordinators they're not scared of Nix beating them deep when Denver can't run the ball.

Denver Broncos Bo Nix: The Good, the Bo, and the Ugly

Denver Broncos Bo Nix is a great quarterback at times, mostly in the 4th quarter of games. Why isn’t he the rest of the game?

Broncos BlitzRich Kurtzman

Alright, Colin Cowherd is a shock jock, but he has some points here.

"Would Sean Payton draft another quarterback? I'm dead serious. Bo Nix has regressed badly" - Colin Cowherd

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— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing.bsky.social) November 7, 2025 at 10:36 AM

"Bo Nix has regressed badly," Cowherd said. "His passer rating has plummeted...He is a significantly worse quarterback this year than last...At worst he'd be like B-ish. This is D-ish."

"I don't care what the number is, take the Chiefs," he continued.

Is the Issue Bo Nix or Sean Payton's Offense?

It's hard to parse out what the biggest issue is.

Nix has been bad overall—with some great quarters here and there, the Eagles 4th quarter was another—but Sean Payton's play calling has been terrible at times, too.

Just on Thursday night, there were multiple dumb play calls.

One was a 3rd and 1 pass behind the line of scrimmage to Courtland Sutton. Not only did he lose yards, but it looked like he was supposed to throw the ball, too. Losing yards led to the missed 59-yard field goal.

There was also a run on 2nd and 18.

And even though it was successful, Payton dialed up a complicated, play action pass on 3rd and 1 late in the fourth quarter. Why not just run the ball?

It's as if Payton is trying to teach calculus to freshmen instead of just sticking with algebra. Again, I get that you want to surprise your opponent. But the great teams run the ball and gain tough first downs even when everyone in the building knows that's what they're going to do.

Again, in that The Good, The Bo, and The Ugly piece, I quoted James Palmer talking about the Broncos offense from the eyes of opposing defensive coordinators. They say they've basically figured Payton's offense out.

Outside of the bad play calling (at times), Payton's been bad at going for it on 4th downs when he should. And he runs it on 2nd and long too often.

So, is Bo Nix a Franchise QB?

Man, I don't know. Not yet.

I think he can be, but I'm not going to die on the hill that he absolutely will be.

I'm looking forward to getting to the end of the regular season and reevaluating where he stands in the process of becoming one. And, if the Broncos make the playoffs—which they definitely should at this point—winning a playoff game would help to solidify himself as The Guy™️.

One thing I realized last night: Troy Franklin is to receiving what Bo Nix is to quarterbacking. A bright flash here and there, and then Franklin drops a perfectly thrown pass in his breadbasket that tips up and turns into an interception.

Nix's play is much the same.

Note: Yes, I said Bo Nix is better than (young) John Elway last week. When you look at their first 26 games, Nix is! Part of it is this is a much different, offensive-oriented era than when Elway played. Will he be a better quarterback in the long run? That's to be determined.