5 Reasons the Denver Broncos Can Win Super Bowl LX With Jarrett Stidham
The Denver Broncos are down to their backup quarterback, but they can still win the Super Bowl this year. Exploring five reasons why you can't count Denver out.
After knocking off the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round, the biggest win in the last 10 years of Broncos football, Denver lost their starting quarterback Bo Nix to a broken ankle.
Now, backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham will start for the Broncos in the AFC Championship Game against the New England Patriots.
Because of the key injury, the Patriots opened as 4.5-point favorites, and the number has been fluctuating between there and up to 5.5. But despite being fairly heavy underdogs, the Denver Broncos can win Super Bowl LX with Jarrett Stidham.
5 Reasons the Denver Broncos can win Super Bowl LX with Jarrett Stidham
Jarrett Stidham ain't no spring chicken; he's a 6-year NFL veteran who was drafted by the New England Patriots in the 4th round in 2019. Which is one layer of irony for this AFC Championship game against the Patriots, and Josh McDaniels, who wanted Stidham.
Which brings us to the first reason why the Denver Broncos can still win Super Bowl LX:
1. Playing experience
Stidham played in 8 games in spot duty with the Pats in 2019-2020. Again ironically, he had a 2-touchdown game (in preseason) where both TDs went to former Broncos great Demaryius Thomas.
When asked if he looked like a rookie, Thomas said, "He looked good."
Fast forward to 2022, and "Stiddy" was in Las Vegas with the Raiders. He played in 5 games and even started twice, going 0-2. Of course, football games aren't won by QBs alone, and he did mount a massive comeback against the 49ers before the Raiders lost 37-34 in overtime.
The last three years, he's been with the Broncos. And the only playing time he got was in 2023, in relief of Russell Wilson at the end of the season when Wilson was benched.
Stidham threw for 496 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception in two games played. That averaged out to an 87.7 passer rating. It's a very, extremely limited sample size, but Nix's passer rating this season was a nearly identical 87.8.
He also took 7 sacks, which is something Bo Nix avoided better than any quarterback in the NFL. So, Denver will have to likely overcome some negative plays in that regard.
The last two years, Stidham has only played in the preseason. The Broncos are the only team in the NFL who had their backup take zero snaps in the regular season both years.
So, here's some preseason highlights:
In this second video, notice how sure he is about being a starter. In 2024, Stidham and Nix competed for the starting spot and Nix won out. This was right after he was declared the backup.
Obviously, those big plays in preseason aren't the same as playing in an AFC Championship, with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Completing passes against the Cardinals' backups is a much different task than competing passes against the Patriots defense when they can taste a title.
But, what he has shown is some decent play, which may be all the Broncos need out of him if they lean on the run and the defense.
2. Sean Payton does well with backups
Sean Payton's a great offensive coach.
As Ollie Connolly explained, Payton has improved in his play calling lately, with the Packers game being a highlight. That's why I said Payton is the right coach to lead the Broncos back to the Super Bowl, along with how he built the Broncos from zeroes to heroes.
And the offense always starts with the quarterback.
Payton has a history of helping not only young quarterbacks—like Nix—thrive, but in coaching guys on short notice, too.
Look at those records! And EPA per drop back. Jameis Winston 5-2, Teddy Bridgewater 5-1, even Taysom Hill went 7-2. And now Stidham has a chance to get on the positive side of the win-loss column by beating the hated Patriots on Sunday afternoon.
We're not sure exactly what Payton's going to do in terms of the play calls in the AFC Championship. It seems unlikely the plays will be as diverse and explosive as what we saw against the Bills. Even for Bo Nix's standards, six deep balls was a lot, and he was on fire, connecting on four of them.
If J.K. Dobbins is back—Denver just opened his practice window to return from the IR—Payton may lean on the run. More on that in a bit.
3. He has 3 years in Sean Payton's system
Sean Payton's got his guys he likes, and "Stiddy" is one of them. Wil Lutz, Lil'Jordan Humphrey, Adam Trautman, and Darren Rizzi, they all played for Payton in New Orleans and are now in the Mile High City.
Stidham is one, too, and he's going to be expected to run the offense.
Of course, he doesn't have the game reps, but he's been studying, practicing, watching video right alongside Nix for three years. He knows the plays, he knows the calls, and Stiddy said he believes he's an NFL starting-quality player.
There have been seven backup quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl, so it's not like Stidham would be the first to accomplish the feat. But the difference with the Broncos backup QB is all the previous backups played multiple games before the playoffs.
4. Broncos will lean on the run game
Broncos Country is a flutter with hope surrounding Dobbins playing this Sunday.
On Monday, he posted a picture on his Instagram story that just had the "soon" emoji and him running onto Empower Field.
Getting Dobbins back would be a massive boost to the Broncos offense, especially with Nix out. Even though he hasn't played since Week 10, he's still the team's leading rusher in terms of yards, with 772 on the season.
According to Sumer Sports, Dobbins' is 12th in success rate (45.75%), and he averaged 5.0 yards per carry this year, which was 14th.
Simply, he was one of the best backs in the NFL before his foot injury made by a Raider on a hip drop tackle.
Even if Dobbins is back with a pitch count, he and R.J. Harvey can share the load, and Harvey can be that change of pace back which helped him thrive earlier in the season. Plus, expect Denver to sprinkle in some Jaleel McLaughlin as well.
Stidham is going to be expected to make some plays, both by rolling out and through the air. But Denver's going to lean heavily on the run game against the Pats, and then again in the Super Bowl if they make it there.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Payton try the ball control and clock control offense, allowing the defense to win games, like we saw versus the Jets, Raiders, and second Chiefs, and Chargers contests. Of course, it may not work as well against a high-scoring offense like the Patriots (or Seahawks or Rams).
One thing's for sure: Sean Payton will have some tricks up his sleeves.
And a note about the Patriots defense; they were 30th in the league in the red zone (67.5%), but 6th against the run.
5. Denver's defense is dominant
The last reason the Denver Broncos can win Super Bowl LX with Jarrett Stidham is their defense is dominant.
This defense—the Uma Musume Defense—led the NFL in sacks, pressures, and red zone scoring percentage.
One thing they weren't great at was forcing turnovers. Crazily, Denver had only 14 turnovers forced the whole season.
But they seemed to have figured that out; last week they forced 5 against the Bills. Three fumbles and two interceptions.
Including Ja'Quan McMillian's insane interception that's still being debated by some sad and sorry Bills fans who saw their coach Sean McDermott fired on Monday.
Denver needs to turn the Pats over multiple times on Sunday to win this AFC Championship. And there's certainly a possibility they do.
Drake Maye, for as great as he is, has turned the ball over all five times the Pats have turned it over during this postseason. He's thrown two picks and fumbled a crazy six times in two games. He lost three of those fumbles, and New England recovered three.
Nik Bonitto just forced two fumbles in the same game, becoming only the third Broncos player to have multiple turnovers in a playoff contest. Can he get another one, or even two, against Maye?
While the Bills offensive line just edged out Denver's as the best pass-rushing unit, the Pats are rated 6th. The Broncos sacked Allen three times and should be able to get to Maye even more this week.
The same will be true against either the Seahawks or Rams in Super Bowl LX, if Denver gets there.
Unbiased opinion and how Denver can still win Super Bowl LX
Diante Lee of The Ringer joined Sheil Kapadia on Monday on The Ringer Football Show to talk about the Broncos vs. Bills and many other games, and Lee said he believes the Broncos can still win it all. (But also said Nix's ankle may have determined Denver's fate.)
Rich Kurtzman
Any Given Sunday in the NFL
We all know the saying, and there's a reason why "Any given Sunday" is popular.
The Broncos have a puncher's chance of winning Super Bowl LX.
They only have to win two more games to take home their fourth Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Beating the New England Patriots to get there won't be easy. The Pats are explosive on offense and underrated on defense. If Denver does win, the Rams are even more explosive offensively but worse on defense, and the Seahawks are the most complete team in the NFL.
Without a doubt, though, Sean Payton will have his Broncos ready to play.
Patriots vs. Broncos kicks off at 1 p.m. MT on Sunday, Jan. 25 at Empower Field at Mile High Stadium.
Jan. 25 is a special day in Broncos history, too; that day in 1998 is when the Broncos took home Super Bowl XXXII, their first win in the big game.
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