Sean Payton has Turned the Denver Broncos into Contenders
The Denver Broncos are contenders for the Super Bowl.
Their 22-19 win over the division rival Kansas City Chiefs yesterday seems to signify the turning point, from pretenders to contenders.
And it's another milestone on the long journey from bad team to greatness that the Broncos are currently on.
The Denver Broncos are Contenders
When the Broncos came back to defeat the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles earlier this year, it was the team's biggest win since Super Bowl 50.
This victory over the Chiefs eclipses even that.
Beating the Chiefs yesterday is now the Broncos biggest win since Super Bowl 50. And if this team continues on this upward trend, there will be even more, even bigger wins as time goes on.
First and foremost, Kansas City is a divisional opponent. Those games always matter more than others. Second, the Chiefs have won the AFC West nine straight times. If you want to be the champ, you gotta beat the champ. That's exactly what Denver did yesterday. Finally, they beat Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes coming off the bye week—they were 6-1 together after a bye until yesterday—the NFL's best coach and most clutch quarterback. All when the Chiefs desperately needed to win and fell flat on their faces.
"I think that loss in Kansas City [last year on the field goal block.] That was a tough gut-wrenching loss," Sean Payton said after the win on Sunday night. "But I think there was a feeling, and if you look at our record from that loss, there was a feeling that we belong here. Listen, there are either wins or losses, but the response after that game last year with the blocked field goal was super."
Since the field goal block, which was a truly heartbreaking loss, the Broncos have gone 14-4 overall. It was just another stop along the journey to greatness, which we'll get into more in a minute.
And if we think back to that fateful game, almost one year to the day (Nov. 10, 2024), we can see how much the Broncos have grown.
Last year, they had the ball with six minutes left and managed to move the ball efficiently while draining the clock. That game may even be when the Broncos fourth-quarter magic that we've seen so often this year started.
However, despite the fantastic drive in Kansas City by a rookie quarterback and young offense, the special teams allowed the game-losing field goal block.
This year, even with an only so-so offense, the Broncos had the ball twice with 6:30 to play, and scored each time. The first drive was to tie the game up, and Wil Lutz booted the ball through the pipes. That final drive was with 2:59 to play. They knew if they gave Mahomes yet another shot, even with less than a minute on the clock, it could spell disaster. His ripped Broncos fans' hearts out before.
Instead, Bo Nix and the offense milked the clock, set up the winning field goal, and the special teams unit successfully blocked for Lutz as he netted the game-winner.
"There was some irony, obviously, when we were taking a knee to kick the field goal," Payton said when thinking back on last year's game. "But I think that the confidence thing that we always talk about exists in that locker room with this group of guys. It’s special."
Sunday's win over the Chiefs wasn't just about that fourth quarter, though, as many games have been this year for Denver. It was a complete, complimentary game for the Broncos.
A Second Complete Win for the Broncos
The special teams, which has struggled a lot this season, got it done and Lutz went 5-5 on field goals. Denver needed every one of them to win. Not only that, but Marvin Mims was finally back and he was electric. Mims' 101 punt return yards were a career high, and his 70-yard return in the first quarter was a new best, too.
Offensively, there were stumbles, to be sure. Like settling for the field goal after starting at K.C.'s 11 following that electric return. But the Broncos "started fast" for their standards, with field goals on their first two drives to lead the game early. Nix didn't throw a touchdown, but his 295 yards were the second-most in a game this season, he didn't turn the ball over, and he made plays in the clutch yet again.
Rich Kurtzman
Meanwhile, Denver's defense was phenomenal as per usual. They pressured Patrick Mahomes 12 times and sacked him 3 times, and allowed him to run only once for three yards. That included Ja'Quan McMillian's brilliant sack on 3rd and 10 to give the offense the ball back late.
Denver's defense—which should be considered among the very best in the NFL—held the Chiefs to 5-13 (38.4%) on third downs and 1-4 (25%) in the red zone. The Broncos lead the NFL in both of those categories: 3rd (28.9%), RZ (35.7%). Each of those are at least 5% points better than the next-best team.
After racking up 3 sacks on Mid-homes, the Broncos now have 49 on the year and are on pace for what would be an NFL-record 76 sacks. The next-best is Atlanta with 34 QB takedowns.
It was only the second complete game of the year, with the blowout of the Dallas Cowboys being the first.
By beating the Chiefs, the Broncos have turned the tables in the AFC West. They are the new captains now. Kansas City will be lucky to land in the wild card; they're currently in 9th.
Patrick Mahomes has Changed, Aged
One more note on Patrick Mahomes; he's slowed down a bit and isn't the same playmaker we've seen in the past.
Yes, he's still great. But, he didn't have the burst or speed on the ground against the Broncos yesterday that we've seen in the past.
He overthrew two different deep balls early in the game, and they weren't really close. When it came to using his legs, Mid-homes ran the ball only one time for three measly yards. And then, driving late, he scrambled to avoid pressure and threw the interception to Ja'Quan McMillian which didn't make any sense.
And Mahomes knew he didn't play well enough.
From The Athletic's piece on the Chiefs huge loss:
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes faced his locker while staring toward the ground, a white towel wrapped over his head as he stood and scrolled through his phone.
This was about a half-hour after the Chiefs’ 22-19 road loss to the Denver Broncos, and Mahomes was left alone with his thoughts.The QB’s corner locker was closest to the exit, meaning he had all sorts of space surrounding him without others around.
At one point, third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun — seeing Mahomes’ body language — made his way over to dap him up, working to lift his spirits just for a few seconds.
Right after that, Mahomes’ eyes dropped again, with his team’s new reality setting in.
The Chiefs are 5-5. They’ve lost almost all chance to win the AFC West — all at a date before Thanksgiving.
Being that I just hit 40, I hesitate to call a man a decade younger than me old.
However, Mahomes just celebrated his 30th birthday, and he's seemingly lost a step.
Plus, when Zach Allen hit him a split-second after a pass, Mahomes held his lower leg in pain. Maybe that's what slowed him down all day.
No doubt, the Chiefs didn't have a good enough answer for the Broncos pass rush.
“That’s a good defensive line at all five positions,” Mahomes said of Denver's D.
It was also clear that was the game plan going in. And Denver got the better of not only Mahomes, but Andy Reid, too.
“We definitely pressured him in the pocket and made him feel uncomfortable,’’ said outside linebacker Jonathon Cooper.
Mahomes and Reid together are now 2-2 against Vance Joseph and Sean Payton, not counting the 38-0 blowout last year when the Chiefs starters rested. And Mahomes' second-worst game of his career came in Denver two years ago, when he turned the ball of three times in a loss.
In all four of those games, the Chiefs have failed to score 20 points. Joseph has Mahomes' number. And maybe, one could say, Reid's number too.
Sean Payton has Pushed the Broncos from Pretenders to Contenders
Last year, I wrote how Sean Payton was molding the Broncos into a winning team.
And now, they're taking the step from mediocre to great. Or from pretenders to contenders.
Considering how bad the Broncos were, and for so many years, they first had to learn how to win. Payton did that his first year, even with Russell Wilson as his quarterback, when Denver won five straight to stay alive in the postseason chase. But they didn't fully take the step to "mediocre" until they beat the Saints last year on Thursday Night Football in New Orleans.
It was a game they were supposed to win, and Denver dominated.
But what last year's team couldn't do is beat better teams. They were blown out by Baltimore and then lost on the field goal block to the Chiefs. Yes, Denver beat teams they were supposed to down the stretch—Las Vegas, Cleveland, Indy—but they fell to the Chargers and even Bengals to back their way into the playoffs.
This year, Denver's beating good teams. They've knocked off both of the reigning conference champions in the Eagles and Chiefs, and the Texans would be in the playoffs if not for the Broncos beating them.
Basically, the path from bad to great isn't a linear line, and the milestones often go unrecognized. Sometimes a bad loss—like the one to the Chiefs last year, or the heartbreaker vs. the Colts this year—can galvanize the team and make them better.
“I think there’s a journey that if you tracked any championship team, I think you would find the tough wins, the close ones, you start doing the math with it," Payton said on Sunday night. "I can recall a number of our better teams—holy cow, just devastating losses and yet rebounding. That 2009 Super Bowl team, we lost the last three games of the regular season. We lost to Dallas, then we lost in overtime to Tampa. But then we had the [No.] 1 seed, sat our starters, everyone was up in arms, we had the [No.] 1 seed. I felt we needed to rest, and then we went on. I think, and you guys have covered this game long enough, you can pick seasons, and there’s going to be those heavy wins, and so part of culture is finding the right ingredients. Everyone wants to talk about it, but I think it’s really important to identify those traits with either your rookies or your free agents.”
Denver's now 7-2 in one-score games this year. Last year, as a mediocre team, they were 1-6 in one-score games. Conversely, the Chiefs were 12-0 in one-score games last year and 0-5 in one-score contests this season.
Great teams find a way to get it done. Whether that means a 33-point 4th quarter, or a comeback against the previously undefeated World Champs.
Rich Kurtzman
Keep in mind, the entire football world outside of Adam Rank thought the Chiefs were going to walk all over the Broncos yesterday. Despite being 5-4, they were considered the best team in football, which is why they were favored by 3.5 points on the road.
And The Athletic named their pretenders and contenders last week. The Chiefs were contenders, while the Broncos were, you guessed it, pretenders.
Now that they have a 2-game lead over the Chargers and a 3.5-game lead over the Chiefs, the next goal and next step on this team's journey to becoming great is winning the AFC West. Denver has the Commanders and the Raiders after their bye week, then four tough ones against Jacksonville, Green Bay, the Chefs (derogatory) in KC, and Chargers at home.
Then, they need to not just make the playoffs, but win at least one playoff game this year.
The Broncos journey from bad to great isn't over yet, and it's certainly not linear, but they're the No. 1 seed in the AFC currently, sitting pretty at 9-2. Denver's on trending the right way, from the start of the Sean Payton Era to today.
