Should Denver Broncos Trade for Jaylen Waddle? Only if Price is Right

Denver Broncos, come on down! You're the next contestants on the Price is Right!

George Paton, thanks for joining us today in lovely Los Angeles. We have here a veteran wide receiver who still has a lot of great football ahead of him, but he does come with a hefty contract.

The Washington Commanders just bid a second-round pick, George, are you willing to go with a first?

If he's on the trading block, that is. Let's check in with Miami...

If so, the Denver Broncos should trade for Jaylen Waddle only if the price is right.

Miami Wanted a First or One-plus for Waddle at the Deadline

The Broncos already reached out about Waddle at the NFL trade deadline per Jordan Schultz, but the price was too steep. Jeremy Fowler also said the Broncos reached out to the Dolphins about trading for Waddle at the deadline, but Miami wanted a first-round draft pick, or a "one-plus (a first-rounder and more)."

Hey, Waddle is a solid receiver.

But he's not worth a first-round pick.

And George Paton isn't going to trade away Denver's first-round pick. The few times he's traded a pick for a player it's been a 6th (Adam Trautman in 2023, Teddy Bridgewater in 2021) or a 7th (Wil Lutz in 2023, John Franklin-Myers in 2024).

Obviously, the Dolphins were trying to get the most they could out of teams at the deadline. The Broncos were among the Steelers and Bills who called about Waddle per Fowler. And all three of them were fighting to make the playoffs in November at the deadline; a stud receiver could've put any one of them over the top offensively.

Now that we're in the offseason, and with the Dolphins cutting a ton of salary—Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb—it seems likely they may want to jettison Waddle, but also for cheaper than before. Miami is even rumored to be looking to trade CB Minkah Fitzpatrick, too.

To be clear, the Dolphins haven't said they want to trade Waddle, and even a "report" that came out the other day has turned out to be false. Many—and I mean many—outlets have run with the story that the Dolphins wanted to trade Waddle for Jameis Winston, but the Giants said no. But the "reporter" they are quoting has "Parody" right in his account name on X.

So, it's not even clear whether or not he's on the trading block. But, he was during the deadline. I imagine he still is.

Waddle is a Very Good, but not Elite, Receiver

Last year, Waddle had a ho-hum kind of season. He caught 64 passes for 910 yards and 6 touchdowns.

Considering he started his career off with three straight 1,000-yard seasons, including a 1,365-yard, 8-touchdown campaign in 2022, last year was decent but not great.

His receptions ranked 42nd, his yards were 25th-best, and he was 27th in TDs. Waddle was a bit of a first down machine last year, with 48 (18th), and he came in the top-10 in terms of first down percentage (48%).

And for a new stat, air yards conversion, he was at 52%. That was only one percentage point higher than Courtland Sutton, and Waddle was 22nd in the metric. Air yards conversion means the percentage of air yards that turned into actual receiving yards. The top receiver in the league last year was Stefon Diggs at 73%.

The way I think of air yards conversion is that it's a more complicated metric that judges how much the player is doing with the ball in his hands. It's the percentage of air yards that turns into real, actual yards. It evaluates not just catches vs. drops, but adds in the element of how reliable the receiver is at all levels of the field; short, intermediate, and deep.

One more interesting metric for Waddle: He was 16th in air yards per target at 13.1 yards. Alec Pierce (20.7) leads the category, among other deep ball threats.

That's one area which he could certainly help the Broncos. Waddle is a deep ball guy, and a reliable one at that. For instance, Courtland Sutton (12.6) and Troy Franklin (12.5) were the highest Broncos receivers on the list. Marvin Mims (9.9) and Pat Bryant (9) were farther down.

The Broncos Need Another Playmaking Receiver

At some point, either Franklin has to step up as the No. 2, or even No. 1 guy, or Denver's going to have to get another receiver to boost the entire room.

Before last season, ESPN's Mike Clay graded the Broncos receiver room as the worst in the league. That played out some last year. Not only were the Broncos No. 2 in drops (43), but their total amount of dropped yards (294) were 3rd most.

Many Denver Broncos fans have complained that Sutton isn't really a No. 1 receiver. Or, if he is, he's a bottom-tier No. 1 guy.

On Pro Football Focus, Waddle was the 11th-best receiver in terms of offensive grade (84.0), while Sutton was 43rd (73.8). Marvin Mims was 83rd (67.5) and Troy Franklin was 118th (62.3).

Judging on PFF grades, and everything else considered here, Waddle would be an upgrade over Sutton. And there's a fit in terms of position; he could play opposite of Sutton, or even line up in the slot at times. But, we do know Sean Payton likes big, physical receivers, and at 5'10" and 182, Waddle is more a speed guy.

The biggest question about Waddle, though, is his monstrous contract.

Waddle Would Need to Rework his Contract

Multiple sites have said, "oh, well his contract isn't that bad, he only makes $11.6M in 2026" which is right, but they fail to mention that Waddle is scheduled to make an insane $33.8M and $37.2M in 2027 and 2028.

That $33M number is the same as Ja'Marr Chase in 2027; I think Chase may be a bit better than Waddle, guys. In fact, only Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Brandon Aiyuk(?) make more than Waddle in 2027. And in 2028, Waddle would be the 5th-highest paid receiver in the NFL.

Currently, the Broncos are $28.8M under the cap for 2026. That's a good position, it's 14th. And there are likely to be some moves to free up more cap space, including some restructures.

So, there's definitely money to pay Waddle for next season.

But when you look ahead to 2027, there are only 31 guys under contract, with $66M in cap space. That space should grow once again because the league has been increasing the cap wildly lately, but Waddle's $33.8M number would put him as the highest-paid Broncos player by $10M.

It's clear the Dolphins severely back-loaded Waddle's deal, as is the case with a lot of players. The 26-year old receiver made "only" $29M his first three years of the deal, and will make more than that in each of his fourth and fifth years.

Simply, the Broncos would need Waddle to rework his deal. Would he be willing to?

Who knows?

If he got traded to the Broncos, it would definitely be a better situation for him professionally.

Not only does it look like the Broncos will be serious contenders for years to come, but Bo Nix is head and shoulders above Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback. The Dolphins are going through a rebuild, and Jeff Hafley just took over the team. It's his first head coaching gig; obviously Sean Payton is a better head coach, too.

Will the Denver Broncos try to trade for Jaylen Waddle?

Not for a first-round pick, and not if they don't think they can rework his contract.

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Rich Kurtzman was born and raised in Denver Colorado and attended Colorado State University in Fort Collins in the aughts. He's been a professional writer since 2011, covering Colorado State football and men's basketball, as well as the Denver Broncos, for many outlets. Current Denver Broncos work can be found on Mile High Sports. Previous credits include CBS Denver and The USA TODAY Sports Media Group.