AFC Playoff Scenarios for Week 18: Who Will Denver Broncos Face?

Ah, Week 18 is here in the NFL season, and AFC Playoff scenarios hinge on these final regular season games.

Even though six teams have clinched a playoff berth in the AFC, and only one is still in the hunt, no teams are locked into their seed yet.

That means there are many pivotal Week 18 games; let's break down how the AFC playoff picture will likely unfold.

AFC Playoff Scenarios for Week 18

The AFC playoff scenarios for the top teams are: The Denver Broncos can clinch the No. 1 seed with a win over the Chargers, New England Patriots can clinch No. 2 if they beat the Dolphins, and the Jacksonville Jaguars clinch No. 3 if they win and both the Broncos and Pats don't lose.

All of those teams are heavily favored to win.

Denver was favored by 6.5 points, but the line has moved to 12.5-point favorites with Herbert sidelined. Similarly, the Pats are favored by 10.5 over the Dolphins, and the Jags are favored by 11.5 over the Titans.

If those three games go chalk, those are your Nos. 1, 2, and 3 seeds in the AFC.

The Broncos could still clinch the AFC's No. 1 seed with a loss to the Chargers, if both the Jaguars and Patriots lost in Week 18, too. Denver would fall to the No. 2 seed by losing to the Chargers, and if only either the Patriots or Jaguars won in Week 18. Finally, the Broncos would be No. 3 with a loss and both the Pats and Jags winning this weekend.

Of course, it's the NFL and anything can happen. But Denver beating the Chargers, New England beating Miami, and Jacksonville knocking off Tennessee are as close to locks as it comes in the NFL.

Moving onto the most interesting seed in the Week 18 NFL playoff scenarios is Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football. Whoever wins that game, wins the AFC North and is the No. 4 seed in the AFC. Baltimore is favored by 3.5 points even though it's in Pittsburgh; I like the Ravens to win this game.

Continuing down the list: The Houston Texans have the inside track to the No. 5 seed. They need to beat the reeling Indianapolis Colts (+10.5) and if Jacksonville also beats Tennessee, which is likely, Houston would be No. 5. Indy's fall has been wild: They were 8-2 and have lost six straight games after Daniel Jones was injured.

At No. 6, the Buffalo Bills seem most likely to land there. As a win for Buffalo, paired with Denver, Jacksonville, and Houston wins, puts the Bills at 6.

That leaves the LA Chargers at No. 7, where they'd land with a loss. LA could take the 6 seed if Buffalo somehow loses to the Jets (+7) in Orchard Park.

I get that it's ballsy to take every playoff team winning in Week 18, outside of the Chargers, who are the only ones also facing a playoff opponent. But, considering the huge favorites in all of the aforementioned games—outside of Baltimore-Pittsburgh—and keeping in mind all these teams know they control their destiny by winning, I expect the playoff team favorites to make it a chalk week.

NFL Playoff Seeding Projections

These NFL playoff seeding projections take into account every team's Week 18 game and the many NFL playoff scenarios at hand this weekend.

AFC

1. Denver Broncos, 14-3
2. New England Patriots, 14-3
3. Jacksonville Jaguars, 13-4
4. Baltimore Ravens, 9-8
5. Houston Texans, 12-5
6. Buffalo Bills, 12-5
7. LA Chargers, 11-6

NFC

1. Seattle Seahawks, 14-3
2. Philadelphia Eagles, 12-5
3. Chicago Bears, 11-6
4. Carolina Panthers, 9-8
5. LA Rams, 12-5
6. San Francisco 49ers, 12-5
7. Green Bay Packers, 9-7-1

Quick notes on the NFC Side

The Seahawks-49ers game is a heavyweight matchup this week and will make for a great Saturday evening game. It's a tough one to call; both teams have won six straight games! Plus, the 49ers beat the Seahawks this year, but it was all the way back in Week 1. My gut says the Seahawks will pull it out and take the No. 1 seed.

That, paired with a Rams win over Arizona, will drop San Francisco to No. 6. But if the Niners win, which they certainly could, they'd be No. 1 and Seattle would fall to No. 5.

The Bears have been great this year, but I'm taking Detroit in that game. And the Eagles will beat the Commanders, so Philly will be No. 2, Chicago at No. 3. If things go scratch, those two teams would be reversed.

The NFC South is the AFC North of the NFC: Two mediocre teams who will almost certainly lose in the Wild Card Round. Carolina just beat Tampa Bay a few weeks ago, and the Bucs would need Atlanta to lose to New Orleans on top of a win. Carolina will get in.

And the Packers have already announced they're resting since they're stuck in 7th. They've lost two straight since losing to the Broncos in Denver's signature win of the year.

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Who will the Denver Broncos face in the playoffs?

If the Broncos beat the Chargers with Justin Herbert and other starters resting, Denver will earn the No. 1 seed and wait to face the lowest remaining seed after the Wild Card Round.

And if my projections are correct, Wild Card Weekend will look like this in the AFC:

No. 7. LA Chargers vs. No. 2. New England

No. 6. Bills vs. No. 3 Jaguars

No. 5 Texans vs. No. 4 Ravens

In that case, I'll take New England, Buffalo, and Houston to advance.

That would mean the Denver Broncos would face the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round.

Ranking potential Broncos playoff opponents by difficulty

Who would be the most difficult opponent for the Denver Broncos? The Buffalo Bills present that toughest matchup due to their experience in the playoffs and Josh Allen as their quarterback.

Here's a ranking of potential playoff opponents for the Broncos, from toughest to easiest:

1. Buffalo: They have a ton of playoff experience, are the best run team in the league and showed they can run all over Denver in last year's playoff game in Buffalo. The Bills are never out of a game thanks to Josh Allen, too. He's as clutch as they come, though a Bo Nix-Josh Allen clutch-off would make for must-see TV.
2. New England: People are calling them frauds because they haven't played, well, anyone. Except the Bills, and went 1-1 against them. But they look like a scary team from the outside. Drake Maye will probably win MVP and has a huge arm, and that defense is 5th in points allowed, although dead-last in red zone scoring D. Playoff inexperience could hurt them, though. They also could be without Stefon Diggs if he's suspended due to a felony charge for choking a woman, which would drop them at least behind Houston on this list.
3. Houston: The Texans are similar to the Broncos in they have an elite defense. Denver did already beat the Texans, sure, but that was after they knocked C.J. Stroud out of the game. The Broncos are built to win close, low-scoring games, but just one mistake can change the outcome of a game like that.
4. Jacksonville: The Jags put an ass whooping on the Broncos a few weeks ago, and Bo Nix was outplayed by Trevor Lawrence. I think Denver would relish in an opportunity for revenge, though. The Jags played their best game, the Broncos played a C- game with the worst tackling we've seen from the defense all year. Denver wouldn't want to play another shootout with Jacksonville, it would seem, as they have multiple young playmakers like Parker Washington, who lit up the Broncos. They have very little-to-no playoff experience like the Pats and Broncos, too.
5. LA: The Chargers always play the Broncos tough, but they're really banged up right now. Herbert is hurt, and they're on their third-string left tackle.
6. Baltimore/Pittsburgh: Both teams are limping toward the playoffs. Physically and metaphorically speaking. Though, Derrick Henry did just hang four touchdowns on the Packers last Saturday, which is why I think they'll make the playoffs over the Steelers and old man Rodgers.

Denver has taken multiple steps forward this year

The Denver Broncos went from the No. 7 seed last year to the (likely) No. 1 seed this year. That's a massive step forward.

This time last year, the Chiefs rested their starters which allowed the Broncos to punch their postseason ticket basically unabated.

This year, under Sean Payton's leadership, they've won the AFC West for the first time in a decade and swept the Kanas City Chiefs for the first time since 2014.

This is a bittersweet time for the Denver Broncos because it's been an incredibly special year.

With one game to play, the Broncos need only one more victory to take the No. 1 seed. They'll get it this Sunday at Mile High, starting at 2:25 p.m. MT.

Considering how down this team was and for how long, these last few sentences seem unreal.

Yes on one hand, the Broncos have been mostly competitive my entire life. But on the other hand, there have been some long down times—after Elway, and after Manning. It was nearly a decade of obscurity and laughably bad football.

Finally, Sean Payton and George Paton have pulled Denver out of the depths.

Finally, the Broncos are competitive again and not some joke like when Nathaniel Hackett or Josh McDaniels were the head coach.

Now, with Payton at the command, Denver has the second-best chance of winning Super Bowl LX this in Feb. 2026.

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