Bo in a State of Flow: Nix has Been Great as of Late
Bo Nix has been on fire the last three games. He's playing with confidence and a consistency that's helping the Broncos stay on this 10-game win streak.
Bo Nix has been brilliant for the Denver Broncos the last three games.
Denver just nixed the Raiders, beating them 24-17 for the season sweep, and the Broncos controlled the clock unlike any other game this year.
Nix didn't need to be special—he didn't connect on his only 20-plus yard pass—but he was surgical. His great play has been crucial as the Broncos have started the second half of the season strong.
Bo Nix is in a Groove
Yesterday, Nix went 31-38 for 212 yards and one rushing touchdown. His passing was precise; he finished the game with an astounding 81.6 completion percentage. Per the Broncos, that makes him only the third QB ever connect on 80% of his passes in three games during his first two seasons, joining Jayden Daniels and Tua Tagovailoa.
Sunday's second victory over the Raiders this year was different than any this season.
Why?
From the Broncos team perspective, they never trailed. It was the first time all year Denver led from start to finish.
For Nix, it was his most accurate and controlled game of the season. He took fewer deep shots than usual because he didn't need to attack deep.
Instead, the Broncos controlled the clock—39:03 in total—by methodically marching downfield on the Raiders with ease. They had three dives of 14-plus plays, which was a first since at least 2000 per Broncos PR. They leaned on RJ Harvey's first career 100-yard day from scrimmage, and Sean Payton called probably his best game of the season. He mixed the pass and run extremely well as Denver imposed their will.
It was only a one-score game, sure. But the Broncos utterly dominated the Raiders from the first gun to the final whistle.
[Highlight] Bo Nix freezes Devin White with the no look pass to pick up the first.
by u/NoAnteater8836 in nfl
This no-look pass was beautiful. Only a QB in the flow state can make this play.
Nix has Been hot for 3 Straight Games
Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, and thrice is a trend; Bo Nix has been in this groove for three straight games.
Rewind to the win over the Kansas City Chiefs three weeks ago, where Nix began this hot streak.
He went 24-37 for 295 yards, and hit on 4-7 of his 20-plus yard passes. The 48-yarder to Pat Bryant was a thing of beauty and it came at the perfect time, near the end of the third quarter. That was his best game as a deep ball thrower this season; he averaged a season-high 12.3 yards per completion in the win.
Last week, it was much of the same for the Broncos quarterback. Besides the bad interception, he was still great, especially when it mattered most in overtime. He was a perfect 4-4 on that overtime drive, and his highlight reel throw to Courtland Sutton just before halftime was something special.
[Highlight] Bo Nix just barely gets the pass off for a Sutton TD!
by u/Large_banana_hammock in nfl
Yesterday, he was more of a game manager than in those two games; Nix spread it around to 11 different receivers and was fully locked in.
Over the last three games, he's completed 70% of his passes, which is superb, averaged 276 passing yards, scored twice and turned the ball over once.
"I feel great," Nix said after the Raiders win. "I feel like I've seen the field very well the last three games. Just understood where outlets are, understood where the ball needs to go. Obviously, you can always say you missed this one and missed this one, but if you're moving forward...The explosives, they'll come. And we've got to continue to find ways to push the ball down the field."
Processing has improved
As he explains in that quote, he's seeing the field well.
That's been a knock on him both seasons, especially early on in each year. At times, it's seemed like the game has been moving too quickly for him. That he's not only progressing through his reads too quickly and missing guys that are open.
The last three games, he's really processing at a high level. He's finding open receivers, hitting them in stride, and making game-winning plays.
As Chase Daniel posted, Nix checked at the line against the Commanders in overtime, calling the throw to Evan Engram that went for 41 yards. It takes a lot of brain power to read the defense, check at the line, and make a perfect throw that led Engram to run at full stride nearly to the house.
If that throw to Sutton was Mahomes-esque, the play between Nix and Engram was *Mahomes-to-Kelce like. They knew where Engram was supposed to go to get the completion.
*Prime Mahomes and Kelce, not Midhomes and washed Mr. Swift.
Footwork has settled
Earlier in the year, Nix had happy feet. He was playing scared, trying to escape clean pockets.
I wrote about it following the last Broncos-Raiders game a month ago today; since Denver played on Thursday Night Football, all the ball knowers were commenting on his poor play.
Rich Kurtzman
Ironically, that post came after three straight games with interceptions. This one comes after three straight solid games.
Broncos Country knows what it's like to ride the Bo-llercoaster.
On this current high, Nix's feet have settled. He's playing with a lot more confidence than we saw earlier in the season, and since he's keeping his mechanics more sound, he's able to deliver a better football with consistency.
Part of that is he's still getting used to being an NFL quarterback; he's not even two years into his career at this level. And that means he's just now learning some of Sean Payton's plays by heart.
"So, the plays you know by heart are the ones that we've repped all year round, training camp, OTAs, getting in-season and rep them," Nix explained after the win in Las Vegas. "You know the different looks you could get. You know the answers to each look. I really feel like when we're playing our best, we're just in that rhythm of calling the plays we're good at, mixing up with some tempo. Guys just know their assignments when you hit those plays. It's hard to stop, because each little look you can get, it could be different, but we've seen the look before, and we know where to go with the ball, or guys know where to get in the zone, or we know how to block the run."
Nix has become more and more comfortable as the year has gone on. That happened last year, too, but we're seeing him reap the rewards earlier and more consistently in Year 2 than in Year 1.
Accuracy on intermediate and deep balls
One of the issues with Nix's passing earlier in this season was his lack of accuracy on the intermediate (10-20 yard) throws and deep balls (20+ yards).
Right along with that footwork improvement has been better accuracy on both sets of deeper throws, especially in the intermediate game.
If you rewind to the first quarter of the season, a vast majority of his throws came at or behind the line of scrimmage, with a few deep shots mixed in. Very few of his throws came in the middle of the field, both between the hashmarks and at an intermediate depth.
That allowed defenses to suck up to the line and play the short game, because, as James Palmer explained on the Steve Smith Podcast he cohosts, teams weren't afraid of Nix hitting deep passes.
Rich Kurtzman
Over the last three weeks, he's gone 9-19 (47.4%) in the intermediate game with 1 TD, 1 INT, and 5-9 (55.6%) on deep balls.
In the eight games before that he was 30-69 (43.5%) with 5 TD and 3 INT on 10-20 yard balls, and 14-40 (35.0%) for 6 TD and 4 INT on deep throws.
Not only was he less accurate earlier in the season on longer throws, he turned the ball over a ton. Think back to the Chargers game and one throw in the Jets game, as well as the deep ball in the Raiders game on TNF; Nix was running to the line and overthrowing his receivers. Now, he's setting his feet and delivering a much more accurate ball.
Play calling changes
Sean Payton deserves some credit here, too because his play calling was at times terrible earlier in the season. We've seen more consistent and a more attacking style of play as of late from his play calling.
The line of scrimmage pass plays have been reduced, and they've turned into 5-yard out routes in the flat. That's working well because they're gaining yards out of the gate instead of hoping perfect blocking leads to positive yardage.
And while he abandoned the run in both the Chiefs and Commanders games, Payton stuck with it in Week 14 against the Raiders and it worked.
He's getting rookie receiver Pat Bryant more involved, which is great for the offense, and even Lil'Jordan Humphrey caught passes yesterday.
It's almost as if Payton is in a groove right now, just like his quarterback.
Tough Stretch Run Up Next
The Broncos are now in for their toughest four-game stretch of the entire season. They face the Green Bay Packers (9-3-1), the Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4) who each lead their divisions, then the Chiefs (6-7) on Christmas Night, then host the Chargers (8-4) to end the year.
Three of those games present really difficult defenses. And even the Jags are very stout against the run.
One thing that has plagued Bo Nix to this point in his career is his inconsistency.
What would be remarkable for Broncos fans is if Nix can stay hot down the stretch and into the playoffs.
Denver's won 10 straight games, and it's not like they need to win-out to get in the playoffs. But even if they fall to a few of these upcoming opponents, it'll be a great sign for postseason success if Nix can keep playing with this fantastic confidence going forward.
