Bo Nix vs. Trevor Lawrence is a Battle of Two Hot QBs
Bo Nix vs. Trevor Lawrence is a heavyweight matchup set for Sunday afternoon. Which QB outplays the other will go a long way to determining the winner.
Bo Nix vs. Trevor Lawrence should be the marquee matchup on Sunday afternoon, but instead FOX has given the game their fourth-best commentator group.
Thank the Saturday games, which have both of FOX's top two groups, and the fact that both games are NFC tilts, like FOX usually calls.
Either way, when the Broncos (12-2) face the Jaguars (10-4) tomorrow, it's going to be a heavyweight matchup.
And not just of two very good defenses, but of the two young quarterbacks, too.
Bo Nix vs. Trevor Lawrence is a battle of two hot QBs
Denver Broncos fans know Bo Nix is hot right now.
He's had four great games in a row, as Bo is in the state of flow. And the latest one was arguably the best game of his nearly two-year career.
Nix sliced and diced the Green Bay Packers defense, including juking Micah Parsons so hard the star defender tore his ACL, sadly. Denver's QB went 23-34 for 302 yards and 4 touchdowns to four different receivers. Nix's 134.7 passer rating was the highest of the season, and his 88.0 QBR was the second-highest of his career.
Rich Kurtzman
He attacked and beat the Packers at every level; short, intermediate, and deep. Nix lit the Packers up in the medium game, going 5-7 with 1 TD from 10-20 yards, and was dominant deep, going 4-6 on 20-plus yard throws with 1 TD.
That included the touchdown and the 4th and 3 pass to Courtland Sutton.
[Highlight] Nix finds Sutton to convert on 4th down!
by u/samhit_n in nfl
That is an absolute DIME.
Bo Nix was so brilliant he won FedEx Air & Ground Player of the Week.
Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars' quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been balling in his own right. He scored an insane 6 touchdowns last week in the Jags' blowout 48-20 win over the Jets.
That included 5 passing touchdowns, a new career-high for the fifth-year pro.
And just like Nix—in fact, even better than Denver's quarterback—Lawrence has been on a heater for a month. The long-haired gunslinger has enjoyed three straight 105-plus passer rated games, and thrown for 9 TDs and 0 INTs over that span.
This following chart plots EPA per play vs. CPOE (completion percentage above expectation). Up and to the right is good, down and left is bad. From rbsdm.com.
From Weeks 11-15, Lawrence ranks fifth in that metric, Nix is 6th.
That's a huge jump for both players: Nix is 17th when you look at the entire season, while Lawrence ranks 25th.
EPA means "Expected Points Added" and basically measures how important a QB is to his team on every play. And both successes and failures are measured with many variables calculated in, like down and distance, field position, time of the game, score, and more.
CPOE is what it sounds like: A QB completes more of his passes than one would expect depending on the difficulty of the passes etc.
While none of these four stats—the aforementioned passer rating and QBR, too—are the end all, be all, each of them can be used together to judge a QB's play.
Simply, both Bo Nix and Trevor Lawrence are on fire.
Lawrence faces a tougher defense on Sunday
The difference this week is the Broncos defense is elite, while the Jaguars defense is just solid.
Denver's defense leads the league in sacks, with a superb 58 on the season. They get after the quarterback like no other team in the league today. Besides sacks, they also have the most pressures (170), and quarterback knockdowns this year with 63.
Continuing down the stat sheet, the Broncos are the No. 1 3rd down unit, allowing a first on only 31.9% of attempts. They're also the hardest team to score on in the red zone, allowing a touchdown a mere 38.5% of the time.
Simply, Lawrence is up against likely his toughest challenge of the year. And that's saying something because he's played the Houston Texans—probably the second-best defense in the league this year—twice.
In the more recent game vs. the Texans, Lawrence completed only 56.5% of his passes for 158 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. He was also sacked 5 times and fumbled twice, losing one.
When Jacksonville played Houston earlier in the year, he completed only 50% for 222 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT and was sacked twice.
Those two games were two of his three lowest rated games of the year; the Texans gave the Broncos the blueprint to follow. Put pressure on Lawrence, sack him multiple times, and let him throw you an interception along the way.
It was a similar kind of blueprint for Jordan Love last week; in his lowest-rated games this year, he was sacked 3-plus times and ended up turning the ball over at least once. The Broncos followed the lead of the Eagles in that case, and turned him over two times in the win last week.
As for the Broncos defense, they're down starting safety Brandon Jones, which will hurt the rest of the season. But they do have the confidence of shutting down an MVP candidate in Love last week.
Simply, Lawrence has a tall task tomorrow at Mile High.
Jags defense is top run-stopping unit
Nix won't necessarily have it easy tomorrow against the Jaguars. But it'll certainly be easier than what Lawrence will face.
The Jags allow a 10th-fewest points per game (20.9 PPG), and are 16th in the red zone (58.5%). But where they really excel is as the No. 1 run-stopping team this year.
Jacksonville allows a mere 86.3 rushing yards per game this season. And their 10 touchdowns allowed on the ground are 5th-best.
That's bad news for the Broncos and now-starting back RJ Harvey, who is averaging only 51.3 yards per game on the ground since becoming the starter. If Denver can't get some sort of a run game established early, it will force Nix into more obvious passing situations, which the Jags will try to adjust to quickly.
Luckily for Denver, they get their road grader left guard Ben Powers back. He was just activated off the Injured Reserve today. So, when they do run, Powers could make a big difference.
As for Nix, he'll likely be able to stay on a heater given the ground game has at least a little juice. Denny Carter wrote this week for NBC Sports that the Jags are a pass funnel defense, meaning they're easy to pass against.
"Expect inflated drop backs for Bo Nix and company, barring, of course, weird game script," Carter wrote. "It’s not as if the Broncos have shied away from the pass in 2025. They’ve been above their expected pass rate in eight straight games. Only four teams have been more pass heavy this year."
So, not only are the Jaguars a bad pass defense, but the Broncos have been throwing among the highest amount in the NFL this year. Broncos Country knows that; Sean Payton has abandoned the run both early and late in this current season, depending on the game and the situation.
He's put the offense on Nix's shoulders, and the second-year quarterback has stepped up time and time again. Sunday should be no different.
The biggest knock on Nix has been his inconsistency in both of his first two seasons. Now he's playing consistently great football for the last four straight games.
If he stays hot tomorrow, expect the Broncos to win, and possibly in more than a one-score margin.
Conversely, if Trevor Lawrence stays hot and the Denver defense can't slow him down, this has all the makings of a wild west shootout in the dusty old cowtown.
Denver (12-2) faces Jacksonville (10-4) at 2:05 p.m. MT at Empower Field at Mile High Stadium on Sunday.
A Broncos win coupled with a Chargers loss to the Cowboys (in the early window) would lock up the AFC West for Denver for the first time in a decade.
Thank you for reading! Please subscribe and/or leave a tip to keep The Broncos Blitz going.
