Denver Broncos, Briefly: Under 9.5 Wins per FTN, Super Bowl or Bust by FOX
Our weekly roundup of Denver Broncos news. Will Denver go under 9.5 wins? No way. They're more likely Super Bowl or bust. Plus, Bo Nix ranked 16th by QBI.
Are the Denver Broncos "Super Bowl or Bust" like Pat Bowlen used to say?
Or will they win 9 games or fewer?
I suppose there's a possibility they could make the playoffs at 9-8, though that's not ideal. And incredibly unlikely. I have this team going 12-5.
Broncos Under 9.5 Wins? No Way
Almost all national analysts are high on the Broncos. Almost...too high.
That's why it's ironic that FTN's Bryan Knowles says the Broncos will win 9 or fewer games this year.
Denver's O/U win total for 2026 is set at 9.5. And most Broncos fans likely agree that's an easy bet toward the over.
Knowles, however, doesn't love the Broncos were 11-2 in one-score games. He thinks Bo Nix needs to avoid leading the league in failed completions for a third straight year. And wonders how much of an impact Jaylen Waddle will actually have on the team.
"Verdict: I’m going under 9.5, though I’m happier paying the -196 line to go up to “under 10.5” instead. I’ve never been a Nix believer, and while his floor is higher than I thought it would be in the draft, I’m afraid we’re going to get too much more of the dinking and dunking we’ve come to expect from him over his first to years. That, plus some regression, plus a first-place schedule, equals about 9-8 for me. Still a wild card contender, but a step back in the win column from 2025."
Sir, the term is "Boliever." On the serious side of things, FTN and Knowles are great, and I think they'll be proven wrong this year.
Super Bowl or Bust Broncos
RIP Mr. B.
Pat Bowlen, who bought the Broncos in 1984 and owned them through 2014, and he famously said it was Super Bowl or Bust for his team.
Now FOX is saying it for Denver this year.
"The Broncos had the AFC's top seed last year and hosted the conference championship, but Bo Nix's injury absence puts an asterisk on their loss to the Patriots," Greg Auman writes. "Can he stay healthy and change that outcome in 2026? Adding wide receiver Jaylen Waddle will give their passing game a jolt, though he literally might be the only newcomer in a starting role. Denver has the best offensive line in the game, and the run game will be improved with a healthy J.K. Dobbins and fourth-round rookie Jonah Coleman.
"Denver's good enough that success won't be measured until well into the playoffs. Can Bo Nix make the big leap that Drake Maye made a year ago?"
Man, I'd love Nix making a huge leap this year. I think he will at least take a big step forward, going from 18th-best QB to maybe 12-ish, which when we look back will be a big reason why the Broncos win the AFC West for a second straight year.
It's wild that the Broncos are getting so much hype from basically every publication across the country, but Sean Payton also deserves a lot of credit for this fast and impressive turnaround.
Nick Bonitto DPOY?
Speaking of FOX, they've been incredibly high on the Broncos all offseason.
Here, they have Bonitto as the 2026 Defensive Player of the Year. Although, to be fair they had fans vote.
Bonitto is the second-best defensive player on the Broncos behind only Patrick Surtain. The same Surtain who...won Defensive Player of the Year in 2024.
And Broncos Country is smart to pick him.
Bonitto has improved in the sack category every year of his career. From 1.5 to 8.0 to 13.5 and finally 14.0 last year. He similarly went from Second Team All-Pro to First-Team in 2024-2025.
While he's already one of the most explosive EDGE guys in the league today, he is still ascending. That's scary for any opposing blocker or quarterback.
Bo Nix Throws a "U Ball"?
Tom Brady apparently believes there's a difference in how a quarterback holds and throws a football.
From a more under the ball throw, the hand makes a "U" shape. That means the ball will float and fly over intended receivers.
That as compared to the "C" shape where passers are throwing from the side of the ball, forming a "C" with their thumb and forefinger. Brady thinks it's not only a more accurate way to throw, but it will cut through the wind, too. Especially in cold weather games.
Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes all have "C Balls." So does Drake Maye. But Bo Nix has the less desirable "U Ball."
This influencer guy explains:
I don't know really what to make of this other than Nix has had issues with the ball floating high over receivers. That's true whether it's a 10-yard pass or a deep ball.
Is tom Brady onto something or just smoking something?
QBI Ranks Bo Nix 16th
The Athletic just came out with a new quarterback metric for everyone to hate.
It's called QBI.
To be fair, I like how Austin Mock—who developed the new metric—starts by explaining that no metric is the end all, be all for quarterback play. I've been saying this for years, and a lot of others are agreeing.
Playing quarterback is insanely difficult and complex.
That's why when I ranked Nix 18th heading into the 2026 season, I used 13 different metrics: From QBR to passer rating to negative play rate and air yards etc.
QBI is similar to QBR in that in rates a quarterback on a play-by-play basis. Mock explains it attempts to strip away a QB's teammates' contributions to plays, though it does factor in whether or not the QB was pressured on the play. It also factors in EPA and success rate, like QBR does.
One difference is Mock considers 100 to be an average QB, 101 is starter level, 124 is Pro Bowl level, and 133 is All-Pro caliber.
Joe Burrow was his highest-graded QB at 132. Matt Stafford and Brock Purdy came in second at 125 each. Then there's Drake Maye, Jordan Love, and Josh Allen respectively.
Bo Nix is down at 16th with a 103 grade.
Hey, NFL scouts and front office people graded Nix 18th like I did, so 16th seems reasonable. Until you see Marcus Mariota and Tyler Shough are right above Nix in the rankings.
So, I'm not sure how valuable this QBI thing is or will be. For now, I'm not loving it.
We're now exactly one week away from the Denver Broncos 2026 season kicking off in Kansas City on Monday Night Football.
That's a the good news.
The bad news is we have to watch every other team play before our Broncos.
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Rich Kurtzman was born and raised in Denver Colorado and attended Colorado State University in Fort Collins in the aughts. He's been a professional writer since 2011, covering Colorado State football and men's basketball, as well as the Denver Broncos, for many outlets. Current Denver Broncos work can be found on Mile High Sports. Previous credits include CBS Denver and The USA TODAY Sports Media Group.
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