Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills Balled Out: How Denver Broncos Stop Them

The Buffalo Bills balled out on Sunday, beating the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-24 in their Wild Card matchup.

Offensively, the Bills are who we thought they were!

The best rushing team in the NFL. With the best quarterback in the league.

Even if their raw numbers don't show dominance, the analytics do.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills rushing game excelled

The Bills have been excellent at running the football this season.

James Cook led the league with 1,621 yards with 12 touchdowns, and Josh Allen's 579 rushing yards and 14 scores led all quarterbacks. In fact, Allen's 14 TDs were 3rd-most in the entire league behind Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry.

Playing the Jags presented a strength vs. strength matchup; Jacksonville was No. 1 against the run. And even though Cook was held to 46 yards, and Allen held to 33, the QB did have two touchdowns on the ground.

Plus, the Bills had the best Rush EPA last week. Even with the Jaguars bottling up Allen and Cook, the analytics loved their run game.

It wasn't just their run game, either.

Buffalo's entire offense enjoyed the highest EPA per play, at 0.224. Expected Points Added is an advanced measurement of how much each play helps or hurts a team's chances of winning.

And the Bills success rate (48.7%) was fifth-best. Success rate means gaining 40% of needed yards on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd down.

What makes Buffalo special and Allen the best quarterback in the NFL is his ability to dominate both on the ground and through the air.

Allen was the best QB in the Wild Card Round

Josh Allen completed threw for 273 yards and one touchdown on an incredible 80% completion percentage against the Jaguars.

He was simply sensational when the Bills needed it most. Down 4 points, with under 3 minutes to play, Allen changed the play at the line and threw this beautiful ball to Brandin Cooks off his back foot while being hit.

When it was all said and done, and he ran in the game-winning touchdown, Allen's passer rating (108.7), QBR, and CPOE were all the highest of the 12 QBs still alive last week.

And it didn't stop there. Allen was No. 1 in EPA+CPOE in the Wild Card win. He was also No. 2 in success rate (53.3%) and No. 1 in CPOE (11.3).

Here's a look at the numbers.

One interesting note: Allen was last in air yards. He threw more screens and short passes than any other QB last week.

That's saying something because he hit that deep ball to Cooks, and a deep one to Dawson Knox, too.

Everyone's been saying this is Josh Allen's year to win it all. There's no Mahomes, no Joe Burrow, and no Lamar Jackson in the playoffs. And the Bills quarterback just proved to everyone he's the king of the position.

He's locked in and trying to earn his first-ever Vince Lombardi Trophy. Oh, and the Bills' first Super Bowl trophy, too.

To wit, the Bills reached the postseason for the seventh straight time, and Allen joins Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, and Peyton Manning; the other three all won multiple titles on their runs.

How Can the Denver Broncos Stop Allen and the Bills?

The Broncos need to pressure Allen on pass plays, rack up sacks, but also contain him so he doesn't run all over them.

Even with a banged up knee, sore foot, and hurting hand Allen is still going to try an take over the game if he has a chance.

“I think he does so many things well," Sean Payton said of the superstar QB. "When you see him…you realize how big he is and physical he is. So he’s hard to bring down. He’s powerful. He’s probably first in the league in second-act explosives where he climbs, moves and then tracks somebody. So there’s a lot that goes into that relative to defending him. He has tremendous legs. He’s a fantastic competitor. He was the difference when that game that was close last weekend, and here it is the final drive. It’s been a while since I saw someone gain seven yards on a sneak. He’s one of the stars of our league, and you see it year-in and year-out.”

Bo Nix vs. Josh Allen: Which QB Runs Best May Determine Divisional Winner

Josh Allen is the best running QB in the NFL today, but Bo Nix can also make plays with his legs. Whoever runs best may determine this game’s winner.

Broncos BlitzRich Kurtzman

The Broncos aren't likely to spy Allen, but rather use zone defense when they think he could possibly take off and run. Meanwhile, Vance Joseph needs to dial up pressures, whether that means the Broncos blitz or just disguise who's coming after the QB.

Like the Ja'Quan McMillian blitz on Mahomes late in the Week 11 win.

Denver's 68.0 sacks led the NFL this year, as did their 213 pressures. But Josh Allen has been great under pressure, too. He was again the best QB in that area, last week.

Still, the Eagles (5 sacks), Houston (8), and Atlanta (4) sacked him the most of any opponents this year; the Bills lost every game.

The magic number is at least 4 sacks this Saturday for the Broncos defense.

Allen struggles against man, Broncos play a lot of it

According to FTN Fantasy, Allen doesn’t like going against man. And Denver plays a ton of man defense.

“One place where the Broncos have a significant advantage is in their use of man coverage. Only the Eagles used man coverage more often than the Broncos, and the Bills’ receivers really struggled to get open against man. Josh Allen had 23.6% DVOA (sixth) against zone but -8.6% DVOA (25th) against man, although the Broncos will need to watch for Allen scrambles against man coverage.”

Buffalo’s receivers already struggled to get open, and now they have only three healthy wideouts on the roster. That means practice squad guys like Kristian Wilkerson and Mecole Hardman will be playing, and add in the altitude and the receivers may struggle even more. Especially against Pat Surtain.

Eliminate penalties on defense

The Broncos need to limit Allen's second-chance opportunities by committing silly penalties.

“He puts the team on his back for sure in critical moments," Patrick Surtain said of Allen. "He finds ways to come through in the clutch, and obviously he has all the attributes. The one thing I picked up on is his toughness. How he’s able to lead his team into victory. One thing we need to eliminate is his second-chance opportunities. He thrives off that and finding opportunities even if the play is not there. He is a great player, so we have to game plan and eliminate the explosives.”

Denver's been one of the most-penalized teams all year long, especially when it comes to defensive pass interference. Their 20 DPI calls were the most in the NFL. So, removing those mistakes will certainly help Denver earn the victory.

We're all looking at you, Riley Moss.

And Surtain didn't have his best game last year vs. Buffalo in the playoffs; he gave up a perfect 158.3 passer rating when targeted. Let's hope we get primetime Pat on Saturday.

Win the turnover battle

Winning the turnover battle is always a key in the NFL, and it will be crucial this Saturday for the Broncos to do so.

"In their losses, they lost the turnover battle in all but one of them," Payton said on Tuesday.

Similarly, two of Denver's three losses came in games where they had a negative turnover differential this year.

In many ways, Trevor Lawrence's two interceptions were the turning point for the Bills. The first one resulted in a Buffalo field goal. The second sealed the deal under two minutes. And the Bills won by a mere 3 points.

As elite as this Denver defense is, one thing they don't do well is force turnovers. However, they did end the regular season on a high note with two turnovers forced, including the pick-6 by McMillian.

Defend the run well

Denver got run all over, for 210 total yards, in last year's playoff loss to the Bills.

The big Buffalo offensive line bullied the Broncos smaller defensive front. That can't happen again this year.

"Then the same thing applies when you’re looking at who has defended them well. I ask Vance [Joseph] that all the time, ‘Who’s defended them well?’" Payton continued on Tuesday. "Jacksonville defended the run well. So all of that factors into your scheme. Now you’re not changing the type of front you play, but this runner combined with the quarterback, they do a real good job."

The Jaguars gave Denver a bit of a blueprint.

But can the Broncos follow it?

Jacksonville was No. 1 against the run, and Denver is No. 2 in terms of yards allowed. But it seems the Broncos excel when opponents are under center vs. in the shotgun.

Two big differences between last year's Broncos and this year's is Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga. Greenlaw will be back this week and his presence will be welcome against the run game.

Meanwhile, Hufanga has been phenomenal all year, both at stopping runs behind the line, and in filling gaps. He has 30 run stops, which is 8th-best among safeties, and his run defense grade (75.8) is 25th among 98 safeties per Pro Football Focus. Speaking of PFF, Greenlaw's 82.3 run grade is 13th among linebackers.

With three wide receivers going on the Injured Reserve the last week, Buffalo is likely to lean on the run game even more than usual.

Buffalo Bills Lose 3rd WR Ahead of Divisional Game vs. Denver Broncos

The Buffalo Bills lost a third receiver to injury in a week as multiple injuries pile up before they head to Denver for the Divisional Round.

Broncos BlitzRich Kurtzman

Ultimately, stopping the Bills is going to be a tough, tall task, even though they are extremely limited in the receiver department.

They still have Allen, Cook, and their two talented tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox.

But Denver can do it if they put their minds to it.

Vance Joseph has been a phenomenal defensive coordinator for the Broncos the last three years, and he deserves a head coaching job, if he ends up getting one. He needs to call a great game, just like he did when he out-coached Andy Reid.

This Broncos team has been led by the defense all year long, and they'll need another stellar performance from them—much like the statement win against the Packers—to win this Divisional Round game on Saturday.

Bettors and sports books seem to be realizing the Broncos could win this game; the line has moved from the Bills being favored by 1.5 points on Sunday, to Denver now being favored by 1.5 points—a 3-point swing—on Wednesday.

No. 1 seed Denver Broncos (14-3) face No. 6 seed Buffalo (13-5) at 2:30 p.m. MT at Empower Field at Mile High Stadium. The game will be televised on CBS and Paramount+.

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