Sunday is a Must-Win Game for the Chiefs, not the Broncos
Kansas City vs. Denver is a must-win for the Chiefs. The Broncos could open up a 3.5-game lead on K.C. with a win.
The biggest game in a decade comes to Mile High this weekend when the Denver Broncos (8-2) host the Kansas City Chiefs (5-4).
It's definitely a must-win game for one of the teams, and no, it's not the Broncos.
The Chiefs need to win to avoid falling three games back of Denver in the AFC West.
Sunday is a Must-Win Game for the Chiefs
Considering how long the Chiefs have ruled the AFC West, it's a weird statement. But yes, this is a must-win game, in only Week 11, for the Chiefs.
That's because they are already the underdog to win the West, and their chances will only get worse if the Broncos beat them.
As of right now, Denver's got a 58% chance to win the division for the first time in a decade, the Chiefs are at about 1/3, and the Chargers are at 10%.
With Denver winning last night, our simulations now have the Broncos winning the AFC West 58% of the time. Chiefs 32%, Chargers 10%.
— Aaron Schatz (@aaronschatz.com) 2025-11-07T14:44:00.125Z
However, if the Chiefs beat the Broncos this Sunday, the odds will flip.
Chances of winning the AFC West if the Chiefs win:
- 51% Chiefs
- 37% Broncos
- 11% Chargers
But if the Broncos win, they will almost lock up the west. A Denver win means the teams chances to win the division are:
- 82% Broncos
- 9% Chiefs
- 9% Chargers
There's no doubt the Chiefs will be hungry coming off that 28-21 loss to the Bills. It was two weeks ago, but remember, they almost came all the way back to win. They were down 28-13 and answered with a touchdown and 2-pointer when they needed it most. But then Mahomes threw a pick on a deep ball.
Not only will K.C. be hungry, but Andy Reid-coached teams are 22-4 coming off the bye week. That's bad news for Denver because Reid is probably the best coach in the NFL today and giving him that extra week to prepare to beat your defense sets you up for failure.
Mahomes is 6-1 off the bye, too.
So, the Chiefs know it's a must-win game. They know they have the best coach and one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. And Kansas City has all the confidence of their Super Bowl pedigree along with the market believing they're the best team in the league.
Week 9 Most Correct And Objective NFL Power Rankings
— Ben Baldwin (@rbsdm.com) 2025-11-05T16:16:37.462Z
The Chiefs are a touchdown favorite over any other team on a neutral field. That's why they are 3.5-point favorites over the Broncos despite the game being in Denver this week.
So, how exactly do the Broncos beat the Chiefs?
How the Broncos Beat the Chiefs
The Denver Broncos beat the Kansas City Chiefs this week by pressuring Patrick Mahomes, stopping the run, and finding production on offense.
When these two teams go head-to-head, it's juggernaut vs. juggernaut when K.C. has the ball.
Yes, I get it. The perception is the Chiefs offense is mid at best. Hell, call him Patrick Mid-homes, if you want. Travis Kelce is beyond washed.
In reality, they are quietly having a solid season passing, and Kelce's actually third in receiving yards at tight end (530).
This offense can still hang with almost anyone. Because of Mahomes, who is second in QBR (74.5), fifth in passing yards, and seventh in touchdowns (17).
So, the focus has to be slowing down Mahomes, just like they have in all three games against him during the Sean Payton Era.
Slow Ya Role, Mahomes
Two weeks ago, it was Mid-homes against the Bills.
He went through his worst-ever passing game in terms of completion percentage, just 44.1%, for 250 yards and an interception. How did the Bills make him look so human?
They got after him with relentless pressure. Mahomes was sacked 3 times and hit 15 times on the day.
Everyone knows the Broncos lead the NFL in QB sacks with 46. The next best teams are tied at 32. But what folks may not know is Denver also leads in QB pressures (111), and QB hits. Zach Allen leads the NFL with 28 QB hits, and Nik Bonitto is second with 20.
Rich Kurtzman
Denver enjoyed 6 sacks on 26 pass attempts vs. the Raiders last week, whose O-line is middle of the pack. Meanwhile, Kansas City's is much better per the analytics, as the 3rd-best pass protection group. And their starting tackle Josh Simmons has been a full participant the firs two days of practice.
Still, the Chiefs are allowing pressure on 52.6% of drop backs, NFL average is 34.0%.
The Broncos have been able to get to QBs without blitzing much this year, but Mahomes has thrown 3 INT against a 5-man rush this year. And his rating under pressure of 83.8 is 15 points lower than his average rating on the year.
So what Denver's defense has to do is get after the quarterback. Simple as that.
Denver's Been Solid Against Mahomes in the Sean Payton Era
All told, the Broncos have played the Chiefs four times since Payton took over as head coach, and Mahomes played in three of those games.
Rewind to 2023 and the Broncos finally beat the Chiefs for the first time in 17 meetings. Denver beat K.C. 24-9 in the Mile High City in '23 in Mahomes' second-worst game ever. He threw two picks and was sacked three times, good for a 59.1 rating. And he fumbled once.
Vance Joseph seems to have Mahomes' number a bit.
His numbers in those three most-recent games against Denver are:
82-120, 68.3%, averaging 271 yards, 0.66 TD, 1 INT, 3 sacks, 4 rushes for 23.3 yards. Those are mediocre numbers, not superstar stats.
Interestingly, while Mahomes is having a decent year, he's 7th in turnover worthy throw percentage.
Patrick Mahomes is 7th in turnover-worthy throw percentage this season. Hopefully the Broncos can pick him off this weekend.
— Rich Kurtzman 🍃🦃🏈 (@sportsballitics.bsky.social) 2025-11-12T18:27:13.230Z
The Chiefs have yet to score 20 points on the Broncos during the Sean Payton Era, with outings of 19, 9, 16, and 0. Limiting their point production this week is how the Broncos will win.
Stop the Run
It'll be a lot easier to slow Mahomes down if the run game is first ground to a halt.
Isaiah Pacheco didn't practice on Wednesday or Thursday and may be out this Sunday. That would be a big boost for the Broncos if he's sidelined. Especially when considering J.K. Dobbins is likely out this week, too.
The Chiefs are bottom half of the NFL in rushing yards and touchdowns, while the Broncos are 4th in rushing yards allowed and No. 1 in yards per carry (3.6). Denver's also still No. 1 on 3rd downs (28.1%) and in the red zone (37.5%).
Even if Pacheco plays, the Broncos have a clear advantage when the Chiefs run the ball. Denver needs to set the tone early and force Mahomes to throw.
Then, the Broncos will likely settle into nickel and dime coverage and hope Allen, Bonito, Johnathon Cooper and Co. put pressure on the QB.
Denver's got to feel good about matching up with the Chiefs offense, even if Patrick Surtain is out. But none of that matters if the offense can't put points on the board.
Offense, Paging the Broncos Offense
The offense is needed on Empower Field at Mile High Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
In quarters 1-3, Denver's a crazy-low +2 in point differential. In the 4th quarter? They're an NFL-best +60.
That's great and all, but many people are questioning how good the Broncos are because they haven't played a tough schedule—a combined 14 games under .500—and starting slow works against bad teams.
It won't work against great teams like K.C.
Denver's got to find a way to put points on the board early and often this week. An opening drive touchdown would be awesome, though, probably too much to ask for.
One would think Payton being a great offensive coach would result in a superb script to start games, but the Broncos have really struggled to come out the gates in every game.
Denver's scored as many touchdowns as they've thrown interceptions (1) on opening drives this year. They also had one field goal on a first drive, with seven punts.
Bo Nix has been worse this year than he was in his rookie season, but he does have a second-most in the NFL 21 touchdowns through 10 weeks. His completion percentage (60.9) is down nearly six percentage points and his passer rating (85.7) is 7th-worst in the NFL.
He's coming off his second-worst game of his career, and back-to-back bad games, despite walking away with wins.
Rich Kurtzman
Simply, Nix has to be better this week for the offense to improve.
Likewise, Payton's play-calling needs to be much better than what we've seen of late. 2nd-and-long runs ain't going to cut it, man. Screens for days are getting read by the defense and stopped. You can't just take one or two deep shots a game and keep a defense honest.
James Palmer explained a few weeks ago that opposing defensive coordinators aren't scared of Nix beating them deep if the Broncos run game isn't working.
That's because Payton's limiting Nix to dinks and dunks in order to not turn the ball over. This week, he needs to be more aggressive, even if it is a risk with his young QB on the ropes.
This Chiefs defense isn't a world-beater like it had been the last few years, but it's still very good. They're 4th in scoring (17.7 PPG), 7th against the pass, and decent against the run.
Denver probably won't have Dobbins in the backfield, which will hurt the ground effort, and rookie R.J. Harvey is the next man up.
However, one man that could be the X-factor this week is Marvin Mims. He's been out for two weeks with a concussion, but he's back this Sunday. Payton likes to use him in a variety of ways, including out of the backfield, and I'd like to see some of that this week.
Keep in mind, that 16-14 loss to the Chiefs in Kansas City last year on the field goal block included a stellar fourth-quarter drive by Nix and Co. That arguably started the fourth-quarter magic we've seen all this year from the offense.
Special Teams Could Decide This One
For nearly a decade, the Chiefs have been so much better than the Broncos, most games haven't been that close. The average margin of victory for K.C. was 10.4 points.
However, half of the games were decided by one score, as was that game last November in GEHA/Arrowhead.
If this game is close, which I expect it to be, special teams could decide it.
And that could once again spell doom for Denver.
The field goal block by the Chiefs last year was utter heart break.
The only thing that comes close it it recently was the field goal miss by the Colts this year, only for it to be wiped off the board due to a leverage penalty on the Broncos—Indy won the game.
That leverage penalty was only one of many mistakes by the special teams this year. They've muffed multiple punts, plus Wil Lutz had a field goal blocked against the Texans two weeks ago.
On top of it all, the Broncos return coverage unit is the third-worst in the NFL, giving up 29.0 yards per return. Plus, punter Jeremy Crawshaw had a case of the yips on Thursday night against the Raiders. A short punt like the ones he had could turn into easy points for K.C.
If it comes down to kicking, the Broncos have the slight advantage. Wil Lutz has been nails this year; 12-15 on field goals, 23-23 on extra points. Meanwhile, Harrison "women shouldn't go to college" Butker is 14-17 on field goals, but has missed 3 extra points this year. Each are career-low marks for him, percentage-wise.
Rich Kurtzman
The Final Word
Kansas City is favored by 3.5 points over Denver, despite the game being in the Mile High City. That shows how much confidence the bettors and Vegas have in K.C. compared to the Broncos, likely because of the anemic offense.
After that sorry showing against the Rai-duhs, I was pretty confident the Chiefs would beat the Broncos easily. Now that we're two days from kickoff, all things considered, I think this game will be close and the Broncos will pull off the win.
