Denver Broncos Bo Nix's QBR was Lowest of his Career in Chiefs Loss
Bo Nix played some of the worst football of his career in the 31-10 loss to the Chiefs on Monday night. He needs to step up going forward or he won't be getting a $250 million contract in the future.
Last night was one of Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix's worst games of his professional career, and the lowest QBR he's ever received.
While ESPN's QBR isn't the gold standard of QB metrics, it is one of the handful of analytics we can use to determine how well (or poorly) a quarterback played.
And his QBR was the second-worst of NFL Week 1.
Update: It was also the lowest-graded game by Pro Football Focus (37.4) of his career.
Bo Nix's QBR was the Lowest of his Career
The Broncos QB ended the game with an 8.3 QBR.
It was the first time in his career he had a QBR in single digits and was a new low, passing his Week 15 performance against Indianapolis that earned him a 12.9 QBR. That was a 3-interception game in his rookie season. His lowest of last year was 15.6, which also came in Week 1.
Only Cooper Rush, the Falcons third-string quarterback for the Atlanta Falcons who had to start because Tua Tagoviloa injured himself in practice was worse this week. He had an abysmal 2.6 QBR in a performance that included 2 interceptions thrown and 4 sacks taken.
What about passer rating?
Bo Nix's 69.2 rating was the 10th-lowest rated game of his career and the fifth-worst of Week 1 among all NFL QBs. Only Malik Willis, Matthew Stafford, Drake Maye, and the aforementioned Rush were worse.
It should be noted that Nix has struggled historically in the first week of the NFL season. He's now thrown 5 interceptions in his three opening games.
So, there's hope he can bounce back. But how quickly?
And what specifically hurt his game last night?
Nix Checking Down When he had Open Receivers
One of the biggest red flags in Bo Nix's game has been his low yards per attempt numbers.
Of note, his 6.4 Y/A in 2025 were 6th-lowest in the NFL. That was actually a drop compared to his rookie season (6.7 Y/A) when he was 8th-worst.
Last night, Nix's 4.7 Y/A were incredibly low and the fifth-lowest of his career for any single game. Only Cam Ward (4.4) had a lower number in Week 1.
Yards per attempt can be affected by throwing a ton of screens. That was certainly the case in 2025 and partially in 2024 too, with Sean Payton calling the plays. But now Payton's given up the play calling to Davis Webb, and we really didn't see many screens called last night.
It was definitely a different looking offense. Even if it wasn't much improved.
So, why were Nix's yards per attempt numbers so low?
He took the comfortable checkdowns instead of throwing it deep even when he had open receivers.
This play came on 1st and 10 from the Broncos own 12 yard line early in the second quarter, the game tied 7-7.
Nix drops back, has two open receivers and even seems to be looking at Courtland Sutton as his first read, but when Sutton (and Jaylen Waddle) come open, he checks it down to Adam Trautman one line past the line of scrimmage.
Notice that Waddle is 7 yards away from the underneath defender, and Sutton is at least 3 yards away from each defender.
NFLJunky on Bluesky sent me this bit of film from the game.
A few seconds later...
This should have been a 15-20 yard gain, a first down, and a flip in field position.
Instead, Nix checked down. That set up a 2nd and then 3rd and 4, where Nix threw it 2 yards to Waddle and the Broncos went 3-and-out.
We know that Bo Nix is great at avoiding negative plays, but there comes a point when a quarterback has to attack downfield to keep the defense honest and to move the ball.
What Happened to Elite Negative Play Rate, Nix?
Speaking of Negative Play Rate (turnovers and sacks / dropbacks), Nix had way too many negative plays on Monday night.
Most of the stats point to Bo Nix as being a middle-of-the-pack quarterback. Some of them point to him being in the bottom third of the league.
But the one saving grace was an elite Negative Play Rate in 2025.
Last night he took 4 sacks, fumbled 3 times (losing 1), and threw the early interception. With only 28 dropbacks, that calculates to shockingly high 21.4% negative play rate.
Last year, his rate was 5.3%. Which was certainly helped by his NFL-leading 3.47% sack rate.
Everyone glows about how Nix avoids sacks. From Sean Payton to Cris Collinsworth, we've heard people say he is really great at not getting sacked.
But he took 4 of them last night.
And blame where it's due: The Broncos supposed No. 1 offensive line in the NFL was basically terrible last night.
One of the sack-fumbles came on a 3-man rush where Mike McGlinchey thought he had his man dead to rights but the rookie spun quickly and hit Nix.
But it wasn't just the line's fault, either. Nix looked dejected—lacking emotion in his eyes—following the first-drive interception. And he looked uncomfortable all night long.
Late in the third quarter he scrambled and pump faked multiple times only to fumble the ball while pump faking. He was saved by the fact that the Chiefs defender was out of bounds when he tried to pick up the ball, but Denver still had to settle for a field goal despite getting the ball in a goal-to-go situation to start the drive.
If L'Jarius Sneed establishes himself in bounds before picking up the ball, that pushes Nix's negative play rate up to 28%.
An NFL team can't win games when the quarterback is either taking a sack, fumbling or throwing picks on 1/5th of their plays. Simple as that.
Rich Kurtzman
Bo Nix Needs to Step Up or Step Out
It's Year 3 of the Bo Nix experiment.
All signs have pointed to the Denver Broncos wanting and hoping he's the franchise quarterback going forward.
But by the end of next year, they'll need to know whether or not he's worth a $250 million investment or if they need to look elsewhere.
Again, Nix has started every season slowly. And he's bounced back.
So, there's reason to believe he will again.
But he can't just bounce back and be average. All offseason the "Bolievers" have said he's a top-10 quarterback when he's nowhere near that.
What he needs to do is play more consistently, he needs to attack downfield more often with accuracy, and he can't regress in the negative play department. That was the one area that was keeping him afloat.
Unfortunately, a "clutch gene" isn't a real thing. And he can be good in the 4th quarter; that's a huge positive.
But if he can't play well for four quarters, he can't be the quarterback of the Broncos forever.
Also, as was touched on earlier in the piece, his body language showed his confidence was shaken incredibly early in this game. It's Week 1, son! You worked your ass off all offseason to get back to the field and you get down on yourself that quickly?
A quarterback needs to keep his head held high, especially when things aren't going his way.
Onto Week 2 and the Jaguars, a team he struggled against last year.
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Rich Kurtzman was born and raised in Denver Colorado and attended Colorado State University in Fort Collins in the aughts. He's been a professional writer since 2011, covering Colorado State football and men's basketball, as well as the Denver Broncos, for many outlets. Current Denver Broncos work can be found on Mile High Sports. Previous credits include CBS Denver and The USA TODAY Sports Media Group.
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