How the Denver Broncos Beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Rematch
The Broncos need to focus on Kelce and run the ball while hitting on a few explosives. Oh, and tackle Kenneth Walker.
The Denver Broncos need to beat the Kansas City Chiefs this time around.
They were completely embarrassed in Week 1 on national TV when the Chiefs won 31-10. The defense couldn't tackle – they missed 24 tackles per Pro Football Focus – and Bo Nix posted his worst QBR in his career.
Obviously, Denver has to tackle better.
The good news is, now that the Chiefs come to the Mile High City at 5-1, Denver's improved along the way to 5-2.
How the Denver Broncos Beat the Kansas City Chiefs
The main headline of the week in this matchup is that Kansas City brought in Justin Tucker to push Harrison Butker, the Chiefs kicker who thinks women should stay in the kitchen.
Rich Kurtzman
That was big news not only because Tucker has been out of the league for over a year due to "football reasons" per the Baltimore Ravens, though we all know his being accused of sexual misconduct by 16 women was the real reason.
It sounds like Butker will remain the kicker this week despite his career-low 68.8% field goal percentage this year; this game should be close and will likely come down to a kick. That could play in Denver's favor.
Outside of the kicking game, here's how Denver wins this week.
Focus on Travis Kelce
The Chiefs have no receivers. Yes, Rashee Rice is likely to return this week. But if he does, Patrick Surtain (if he plays) will shut Rice down.
Tyquan Thorton dislocated his ankle and Xavier Worthy isn't happening as a wideout no matter how much Kansas City tries to make it become a thing.
So Kelce is basically their only pass catching threat.
And despite his advanced age, he can still play and has always been a thorn in the Broncos' side. Remember, he caught the touchdown to push the Chiefs ahead last year in Denver and then mocked Broncos Country in the north end zone.
The Broncos ultimately won, so the joke was on Mr. Swift.
The thing is, Denver's bad at covering tight ends. Especially Alex Singleton.
Denver should consider putting Jahdae Barron or even Ja'Quan McMillian on Kelce at times to slow him down. If they do, it will make the Chiefs even more one-dimensional.
Blitz Mahomes Relentlessly
Speaking of, when Mahomes throws he needs to be pressured.
Vance Joseph out-coached Andy Reid last year. And he has both Reid and Mahomes' numbers over the years.
Since 2023 when Joseph returned to Denver, the Broncos have faced the Chiefs five times with Patrick Mahomes playing quarterback. In those five games the Broncos have sacked Mahomes 14 times and forced five interceptions vs. allowing a mere five touchdowns.
Denver got the Chiefs offense off the field with 3:10 left in the game last year when Ja'Quan McMillian blitzed from the slot and got to Mahomes.
According to Pro Football Reference, Mahomes has only been pressured on 20% of his dropbacks. That's 8th-lowest in the NFL.
Denver's been elite at pressuring QBs the last few years and they're averaging 15.4 per game this year, which is fourth-best. They can get after Mahomes without blitzing, but they'll undoubtedly send some at him this week.
When they do, they need to get home because Mahomes has a fifth-best EPA per dropback vs. the blitz. Denver is ninth in blitz rate at 35.6%.
Again, the Broncos must tackle better when Kenneth Walker or Mahomes runs, too.
Run the Ball, Hit on a Few Explosives
Denver finally got their run game going last week in the win over the Cardinals. Their 159 rush yards was a season-high, and it was definitely bolstered by Bo Nix's 73 yards on the ground including his incredible 62-yard run to the house.
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This week, Nix will likely need to run a few times again, especially if it's tight late.
But it would be great if the running backs went to work.
It's clear that Jonah Coleman is the best running back on the team. He deserves more carries, and Sean Payton said as much following last week's win.
Coleman would be eighth in the league in yards per carry with 4.9 if he had enough carries to qualify. He runs with power, patience, and uses great vision to find the hole before taking off.
Coleman should be the lead back, but Payton loves a running back by committee approach. We'll see J.K. Dobbins, some RJ Harvey, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Marvin Mims line up in the backfield as well.
Running the ball well will help Denver control the clock. Of course, the Chiefs are better at stopping the run than the Cardinals, but only by a bit. Where Kansas City thrives is in limiting opponents scoring, as they give up a mere 17.2 points per game (2nd).
They've also only given up five passing touchdowns this year.
In order to stay on the field and put points on the board, Denver also needs to hit on some explosive plays like they did last week. Not only the Nix run but the 47-yard pass to Mims, the 52-yard pass to Harvey, the 27-yarder to Jaylen Waddle and a 20-yarder to Courtland Sutton.
If Waddle can't play due to his chest injury, that takes away one of Denver's big-play threats. But Sutton, Troy Franklin, Mims, and Harvey can all hit on explosives.
Whoever wins the explosive play battle will be in solid position to win; Kansas City's explosive play rate allowed is only 4.7% (8th).
Prediction
This is shaping up to being a low-scoring game. The oddsmakers have the over/under at 40.5 points, down from the opening line of 43.5.
In the seven games since 2023, the highest scoring total was 43 points, with two other games totaling 41.
Denver's going to win this one and it'll be close.
Prediction: Broncos 23 - Chiefs 16
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Rich Kurtzman was born and raised in Denver Colorado and attended Colorado State University in Fort Collins in the aughts. He's been a professional writer since 2011, covering Colorado State football and men's basketball, as well as the Denver Broncos, for many outlets. Current Denver Broncos work can be found on Mile High Sports. Previous credits include CBS Denver and The USA TODAY Sports Media Group.
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