National Analysts Weigh in on Bo Nix vs. Caleb Williams Debate
When we talk Bo Nix vs. Caleb Williams, Denver Broncos fans have a big difference of opinion vs. fans nationally. We asked Denny Carter, Mina Kimes and others about their thoughts on Nix.
Is Bo Nix or Caleb Williams a better quarterback right now? And who will be the better quarterback as time goes on?
These discussions have been happening a lot lately.
And your answer to who the better quarterback is likely depends on who your favorite team is.
National Analysts Weigh in on Bo Nix vs. Caleb Williams
After last week's r/NFLv2 subreddit post, which asked fans if they'd rather have Bo Nix or Caleb Williams on their team, I then put that in the weekly roundup newsletter.
I posted that newsletter both in the r/NFLv2 as well as r/DenverBroncos and the replies were predictably similar to the original post.
Most fans from all around the league don't see it as a competition. They put Caleb Williams head and shoulders above Bo Nix. Meanwhile, Denver Broncos fans see Bo Nix as clearly the better QB than Williams, and astutely cite his stats, which are better in almost every regard.
So, noticing the difference in opinion there, I went to Bluesky to ask national correspondents what they think of Bo Nix and how he compares to Caleb Williams, for a more unbiased look at it.
Denny Carter
Longtime friend of the newsletter and NBC Sports contributor Denny Carter said of the Bo vs. Caleb debate:
"Nix is fine for what he's asked to do. Caleb is far better though.
That Nix had an air yards conversion rate below Cam Ward is highly concerning. Nix since 2024 ranks 31st out of 41 qualifying QBs in success rate. Justin Fields and Bryce Young are ahead of him. That's ... not good."
Denny Carter
Carter is referencing some advanced analytics which leads many to see the red flags popping up for Nix. Some of the air yards conversion issue is, again, the dink and dunk passing. And how safe Sean Payton has been with him in the kid's first two years.
I'm excited to see how Jaylen Waddle helps transform the offense, and how much impact Davis Webb's play calling will have.
Mina Kimes
"I think the Broncos are Super Bowl contenders," Kimes responded to me on Bluesky. "Some fans just don't like it when you aren't as high on the QB as them, even if you think the team is excellent."
Mina Kimes
Kimes was actually responding to a screenshot from the r/DenverBroncos post, in which one Broncos fan said the national media is high on Denver except "salty Mina Kimes."
Kimes is a huge ball-knower and she just won Celebrity Jeopardy!. She's smart as hell, and she even says the Broncos are contenders. And while she didn't go into great depth here, it's seems she doesn't think Nix is a top-10 QB (neither do I, not yet anyway) even if she does think the team is great.
Scott Spratt
Scott Spratt, formerly of ESPN, PFF, Football Outsiders and more, weighed in.
"The Nix vs. Caleb debate shows how stats capture styles as much as abilities," Spratt said. "Nix looks more accurate in box scores but leans on easy throws like screens.
Compare their deep passing:
Nix: 11.8% deep% (19th), 45.8% acc% (29th)
Caleb: 14.4% deep% (3rd), 53.4% acc% (18th)
Source: @ftnfantasy.com"
He continued, "I think if you could make them have identical throw type mixes, you would see that Caleb has a better and more accurate arm in addition to his better athleticism.
But Nix deserves credit for taking the singles and doubles defenses give him. Caleb needs to reign it in 20% to reach his potential."
Spratt's stats here are very interesting. We know that Nix has struggled on the deep passing, but it's great to see how often he passes deep (19th) vs. Williams (3rd).
Some fans have argued that Williams is a better QB because he plays in a "tougher" offense. While that's a bit difficult to quantify, Broncos Country knows from watching the last few years that Sean Payton calls a ton of dink and dunk passes. That is easier than chucking it deep at a near 15% clip.
If Nix can improve his deep passing, and stop running toward the line as he unloads the ball which results in overthrows, it will be a major boost in the Broncos offense and his accuracy. Plus, he will be able to put more pressure on the defense. As James Palmer said last October, a defensive coordinator told him if Denver's not running the ball well, opponents aren't worried about Nix beating them deep.
One more thing on Spratt's take: I'm not sure it's clear cut that Williams is more athletic than Nix. Nix has shown he can run well, gain first downs, and he's got more rushing touchdowns than Williams, too.
Scott responded to clarify: “I just mean that Caleb's athleticism shows up in unconventional places, like his longer average time to throw and his total pass attempts under pressure. He makes you really think about what any stat about him is actually telling you.”
Scott Spratt
Drew Magary
Magary writes for SFGate.com and Defector, and he does this column "Why your team sucks" every offseason. I think that qualifies him as being an unbiased NFL viewer.
I asked him a few days ago where he ranks Bo Nix and if Nix can grow this year.
His response:
Drew Magary
After two years in the NFL, Bo Nix being a "terminal middle of the pack QB" sounds harsh but it lines up with what we've seen to this point. I'm just not sure the "terminal" part was necessary.
Nix has to be more consistent overall, especially in the mid and deep passing games, as well as in between the hashmarks, where he's struggled mightily. To me, Nix's ceiling is somewhere around 10th-best, meaning I do expect him to grow from where we've seen him in Years 1 and 2. But to think he will be top-5 one day is a bit delusional.
Why does all of this matter?
Why is Caleb Williams vs. Bo Nix even a thing?
Well, both of them went in the first round of that 2024 draft, which right now is looking like a great quarterback draft.
Williams went No. 1 overall, and Nix was the sixth quarterback taken at No. 12 overall.
They're not supposed to be this close after two years of play, and yet, they are.
They're arguably the two best quarterbacks of that 2024 draft class, with Drake Maye (2 Pro Bowls, 1 All-Pro) likely saying "uh, what?" and Jayden Daniels is still in the conversation despite missing half a season with a major injury.
Of course, many of the fans have responded to the Bo Nix vs. Caleb Williams debate posts with "yeah, but each of them are still very young."
Yes! They are! And through two years, Nix vs. Williams is just a fun comparison of the present, where we stand today.
I think in the long run, Williams has a higher ceiling and as we’ve seen Nix has a higher floor.
Nix probably tops out at about the 10th-best QB in the NFL. If he hits, say, 7th that's a huge win.
Williams' potential ceiling seems like 5th-best.
But these are all simply guesses, too!
Josh Allen was a scrub for his first two years and became one of the best QBs in the NFL. But it should be noted that his type of ascension is certainly unlikely and basically unprecedented.
I do expect both quarterbacks to continue to grow incrementally over the next two years, but don't necessarily expect either of them to make a huge leap. Still, in 3-4 years from now, we may look back at 2025 as a distant past in terms of how much they've grown at that point.
But quarterbacks are still the most-difficult position to predict in all professional American sports.
That's why hits and misses are so varied when you look back at NFL Draft history. Why Patrick Mahomes went 10th during his draft and why the Broncos whiffed on guys like Paxton Lynch and Tim Tebow, who also went in the first round of their respective years.
Ultimately, the way the team is currently constructed, the Broncos can compete for a Super Bowl if Nix is middle-of-the-pack, limits turnovers, and the defense continues to dominate.
Ideally though, the offense will come a long way compared to 2025 so Denver is more well-rounded.
But there's little doubt that Denver's Super Bowl window is open right now, with Bo Nix at quarterback.
He should continue to improve, and Jaylen Waddle could be a key that unlocks a lot of potential in the offense this year.
And what will likely get these national analysts over the hump in terms of thinking he's a better quarterback is if Nix lights up teams on the national stage more often. His last game against the Bills was great. He was phenomenal against the Packers in Week 15. Nix was very good against Kansas City in Week 11 and superb vs. Dallas in Week 8.
But these great games need to be the rule, not the exception.
Nix and Payton's offense have started seasons slowly, and they're up against a fierce six-game slate to start 2026. Plus, he's coming off his first major injury as a professional.
Can it just be football season already?
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Rich Kurtzman was born and raised in Denver Colorado and attended Colorado State University in Fort Collins in the aughts. He's been a professional writer since 2011, covering Colorado State football and men's basketball, as well as the Denver Broncos, for many outlets. Current Denver Broncos work can be found on Mile High Sports. Previous credits include CBS Denver and The USA TODAY Sports Media Group.
Caleb Williams Bo Nix Drake Maye Jayden Daniels
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