Sean Payton is the Right Coach to Lead Denver Broncos to a Super Bowl
Sean Payton is the right coach to lead the Denver Broncos to a Super Bowl. He's on top of his game, and has rebuilt the team into a contender in less than three years.
One week from Christmas and the Denver Broncos are the No. 1 team in the NFL.
Denver is the only 12-win team in the league and they have a 70.6% chance of taking the 1 seed in the AFC. That would mean a first-round bye to rest while potential opponents faced each other, and then two home games to make Super Bowl LX. Keep in mind, the Broncos haven't lost in Denver since Oct. 2024, they’ve won 12 straight.
That's because Sean Payton has built a winner, a complimentary team in all three phases. And I've become more convinced as time has gone on the last three years—especially this year—that Sean Payton is the right coach to lead the Denver Broncos back to the Super Bowl.
Sean Payton will lead the Broncos back to the Super Bowl
Payton is sometimes cocky, and he's rough around the edges with the media.
But this week, he finally explained the Broncos goals for the season.
“Yes, it’s nice to clinch a playoff berth," Payton said after the signature win. "Goal one is try to go win your division. Goal two is try to get the best seed, and then goal three is try to win a world championship. So we still haven’t really accomplished one, two or three. So remember one is win the division. We’re still going.”
First and foremost, these are the right goals for a coach to have for his team. Secondly, in his typical old school fashion, he kept them close to the vest all year long; we're only now hearing about it. And it seems like the players are all bought in.
With three weeks to play, the Broncos have an 84.4% chance of winning the AFC West. They‘re narrowing in on goal one.
It would be the first time Denver's won the West since 2015, when they also won Super Bowl 50. And it would be Payton's first divisional win in his tenure here.
The only way they lose the division at this point is to lose to the Chargers in Week 18, plus a bunch of other stuff has to happen, including the Broncos losing to the Chiefs on Christmas.
Which seems very unlikely at this point; Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL last week, KC is eliminated from the playoffs, and their dynasty is over.
Locking up the division is just another step in the journey to getting back to a Super Bowl for Payton and the Broncos.
Let's quickly look at that journey and how we got to this point.
2023: How he built the team
It's important to remember the Denver Broncos traded a first-round and second-round draft pick for Sean Payton and a third-rounder. That was a steep price for a coach who had been out of the game for a year, but it has paid off greatly over time.
After taking the job, Payton and GM George Paton had a lot of work to do. Denver was the laughing stock of the NFL in 2022 under Nathaniel Hackett, going 5-12.
Payton and Paton went to work by building the offensive and defensive lines. They signed Zach Allen, who's likely going to earn his second first-team All-Pro award this year. The also signed guard Ben Powers and right tackle Mike McGlinchey; Denver's had the best O-line all year.
Then, the two took receiver/return man Marvin Mims with their first draft pick in '23, in the second round.
“I think you recall, I think he was our first draft pick, George [Paton] and I,” said Sean Payton when talking about Marvin Mims after the Raiders game two weeks ago. “I remember there were two things we felt… It’s been embedded in me: the quickest way to improve a team is the kicking game and get the offensive line squared away.”
That certainly worked out, not only for this current Super Bowl contending team, but even way back in '23.
“And then, I don’t know what the numbers are, but when you score in special teams or you score on defense, you’re over 80% winner,” Payton explained of Mims' punt return touchdown vs. the Raiders. “It was amazing, because from my angle, which was pretty right there, to see Mims come out of that pile, that was a big play.”
Outside of building the team his way—which has turned out to be the right way—Payton got that group to come within one game of making the playoffs. Even with Russell Wilson as his QB, someone who Payton seemed to despise.
Remember in ‘22 and Russ was high-kneesing up and down the plane aisles on the trip to London, or that he had the big office in Dove Valley? Payton put the kibosh on all that.
It's actually pretty wild to think back on it now, but multiple local and national media members called Payton a "bully" for the way he handled the Wilson ordeal. Some wanted him reprimanded or fired.
So much for that.
2024: Putting his stamp on the team
The 2024 NFL Draft is when Sean Payton really put his stamp on the Denver Broncos.
Obviously, they drafted Bo Nix to be the future of the quarterback position in the Mile High City. He actually played the Raiders when he did Draft Nix, telling them Denver might want to move back to see if they wanted Nix for their own. They also drafted Troy Franklin, who's developing nicely, and traded a 6th-round pick for John Franklin-Myers. In free agency, they re-signed Wil Lutz—who's been great—brought in Malcolm Roach, and starting safety Brandon Jones.
But, starting a rookie quarterback can come with disastrous consequences for a team. Payton seemed to dumb down his offense early on, and Bo still struggled, until he finally got it going with a great game against the Panthers in Week 8. In fact, that previous week, I wrote for Mile High Sports that Payton had finally taught his team how to win.
The Broncos couldn't beat playoff teams and went 1-6 in one-score games, but they still found a way to win 10 games and make the playoffs for the first time in 8 years.
Denver was way ahead of schedule last year, and Las Vegas had them at 5.5 wins before the season kicked off.
The one downside for Payton was his conservative coaching in the playoff loss to the Bills.
2025: Pushing the limit
This year everything's clicked. And it's still only a rebuilding year, despite the championship window being officially open.
Payton and Paton improved the defense by adding Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga in free agency, and drafted Jahdae Barron in the first round. They also beefed up the offense by adding J.K. Dobbins and Evan Engram in free agency, R.J. Harvey and Pat Bryant in the Draft.
And considering they're 12-2 right now, it's crazy to think they were 1-2 at one point, including heartbreaking losses to the Colts and Chargers.
Earlier in this season, the offense was a complete liability. It was offensive. It was ugly.
That started at the top with Payton's poor play calling, moved down to Bo Nix's bad play (outside the 4th quarter), and into other individuals who weren't doing enough (Engram, Franklin, Harvey).
Still, Denver kept fighting, even in games they were supposed to lose.
Their first huge win of the season came against the Super Bowl champion Eagles, who were undefeated before the matchup. It was the game that inspired this newsletter.
Rich Kurtzman
Then, the cardiac kid Broncos scored 33 points in the 4th quarter against the Giants to win. But that was a game they were expected to win, leaving people wondering how good a team they actually were.
Blowing out Dallas sure helped—it was their first complete game of the year—and then beating a tough Texans team on the road showed Denver had mettle, too.
Edging out the Chiefs was huge because people were still picking Kansas City in that game, despite it being in Denver and the Broncos having a 3-game lead. Payton completely out-coached Andy Reid in that one.
And this Sunday, beating true Super Bowl contenders Green Bay, was the Signature Win™️of the Sean Payton Era. He also out-coached Matt LaFleur.
From the beginning of the season in September to today, many individuals have grown on the Broncos.
Bo Nix has gone from so-so to playing elite football the last four weeks, and even won FedEx Air/Ground Player of the Week on Wednesday. In fact, he's playing the 6th best at quarterback the last month.
Talanoa Hufanga has become a defensive leader this year, and is a both a great run-stopper and cover safety. R.J. Harvey leads the team in touchdowns and continues to slowly improve as a running back while fellow rookie Pat Bryant is starting to break out. And despite some drops, Troy Franklin has cemented himself as the No. 2 receiver on the team.
Payton has maximized what he's been able to get out of this team, down to every individual player.
At the same time, Payton's leveled up too.
Sean Payton's play calling has dramatically improved
Play calling has improved all year long, with the Packers game being his best yet.
Earlier in the season, the play calling was really conservative. Actually, going back to 2024, it was mostly conservative then, too.
Bo Nix earned the "checkdown merchant" moniker because he was constantly throwing it at, near, or behind the line of scrimmage. In fact, through October, his air yards per attempt were only 3.2 (they're 3.6 now, still being weighed down a bit by those early games). In that aforementioned Giants game, he threw so many screens they were getting sniffed out and stuffed at the LOS; including the receiver screen to Courtland Sutton on the goal line.
In fact, Payton's play calling was so bad there's a bit of a conspiracy theory floating around Broncos Country that he was deliberately sandbagging with his offense. That he was saving the best plays for later in the year.
It's something I've thought about dedicating an entire post about, but there's no way to prove if he has or hasn't. I think it's highly unlikely that an NFL head coach would dumb down his offense so much as to just barely stay in games only to win them at the very end. Then again, Payton's job is safe, so he could probably gamble and do some of that if he wanted.
What I think is more likely is that Payton still sees Nix for what he is: A young quarterback trying to get comfortable in the NFL. As Nix has grown and improved this year, Payton has opened the offense up progressively more and more, until the pinnacle of his play calling, vs. the Packers.
Great play calling vs. Packers
This piece by Ollie Connolly is a must-read for Broncos fans. It's incredibly informative, not just on Sean Payton, but how play calling breaks down into four different jobs: "game planner, play designer, situational play caller, and play sequencer."
"Being good at all four is tough," Connolly explained. "Being great is reserved only for the best. It’s why those roles are increasingly splintered between different members of the staff — and why some fail when they move from designer to the designated play-caller. But Payton put on a clinic against the Packers. Finally, it looked like his mojo was back."
What Payton specifically did against the Packers was change up his play calling in terms of dialing up plays that were Formation to the Boundary (FIB). In other words, on FIB plays most of the play-makers were on the short side of the field. He called plays closer to the boundary 24% of the time vs. a typical 4%.
He also used a layering to set up Green Bay and exploit them when it mattered most, in the fourth quarter.
"Layering starts with that first brick. Coaches approach their opening couple of drives or their game script differently. Payton is from the old school, those who adopt the approach of the Stasi. He runs out every array of personnel grouping, motion, shift, and formation to gather intelligence on the defense."
This is only scratching the surface of what Connolly explained in his fantastic piece.
But what it proves is a few things: Payton can and will switch up his style when need be, and the game has clearly not passed him by at 61 years old.
As football fans, we sit on the couch with our beer in hand and yell at the TV to "throw the damn ball!" but what Payton is doing is a whole other level. We think about playing Madden and calling plays willy-nilly, with a handful of favorites that seem to always work. Payton's playbook is nearly 1,000 pages long, every play he calls is either testing the defense, setting them up, or exploiting them.
More aggressive passing
At a more zoomed-out level, and simplistic one, Payton's been dialing up more aggressive passing lately. Except in that Raiders game. That, too, lends a bit of credibility to the "dumbed down offense" conspiracy theory; Nix only took a single deep shot that entire game. A theory I don't necessarily believe, nor one Payton would likely ever admit to.
In the other three games against KC, Washington, and Green Bay, Nix's yards per completion were 12.3, 11.1, 13.1, three of his top-5 in that category this season.
What those numbers point to is Nix has been throwing more intermediate (10-20 yard) and deep (20+) passes lately, and he's been hitting on more of them, too. Over the last four games he's 14-28 (50%) with 2 TD, 1 INT on intermediate throws and 9-15 (60%), 1 TD on deep balls.
In the 10 games before that he was 30-69 (43.5%) with 5 TD and 3 INT on 10-20 yard balls, and 14-40 (35.0%) for 6 TD and 4 INT on deep throws.
Where Payton can improve: Playoff play calling
We've only seen one playoff game with Payton at the helm, and while it started out amazingly, the offense sputtered and the Broncos were blown out 31-7 last January.
Interestingly—and maybe this is exactly why, to catch them off guard—Payton dialed up a bomb from Nix to Franklin on the first drive of the game instead of feeling out and testing the defense for tendencies. It worked and Denver had the early 7-0 lead.
But Buffalo's offensive line manhandled the Broncos smaller defensive front and the Bills ran all over the Broncos.
All while the offense couldn't hang with Buffalo and match them punch for punch. The good news is this 2025 team did just that to Green Bay, and knocked out the Packers on top of it.
Still, Buffalo's a better offense and as good as Jordan Love is, Josh Allen is a better quarterback. And runner.
The Bills were solid last year, but Payton's play calling was simply too cautious in the loss. Especially after the half, when he ran, ran, passed multiple times for multiple 3-and-outs in the third quarter. The Bills answered with back-to-back touchdowns to take a 3-score lead.
This year, he's not relying on a rookie quarterback. So, he can take more chances. And he'll need to, especially if the Broncos face those same Bills this year. Even if it is at New Mile High.
Buffalo's the scariest AFC team out there.
No matter who the Broncos face in the playoffs though, I'd much rather see them go for broke and make some mistakes than to basically roll over on offense and die.
This is a special season in the Mile High City. Not only are the Broncos 12-2, the second-best start in franchise history (1998, 13-0), but so many teams are down that the window is open to win it all right here, right now.
Yes, these Broncos should be even better next year. That's when the window was supposed to open. But there are three heavyweights in the AFC—KC, Cincy, Baltimore—who are down this year. That's why the window is open, and any or all three may be back up next season.
Payton realizes that. He also knows this team is still in a building phase. But one thing he's proven over the last three years in Denver; you can't count him or the Broncos out.
Payton can lead the Broncos to a Super Bowl
There are only seven active coaches who have won a Super Bowl, and I don't see Pete Carroll going to or winning another one.
That leaves six: Andy Reid, Nick Sirianni, Sean McVay, Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, and Payton.
There are a handful more who could certainly win Super Bowl, but haven't yet. I'd name: Dan Campbell, Jim Harbaugh, Sean McDermott, Matt LaFleur, Kyle Shanahan, and maybe Kevin O'Connell.
That's about 40% of head coaches who are verifiable Super Bowl caliber right now.
Payton has what it takes to take Denver back to the Super Bowl; as a coach, as a leader of men, and as a play caller.
Yes, sometimes it's nice to get a new and upcoming coach. McVay and Sirianni are two examples of that working out. But when the Broncos traded for Payton, they knew they were getting a coach with a winning resume and the experience needed to win a fourth Super Bowl for the franchise.
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