Denver Broncos 2026 Record Prediction: Game-by-Game Analysis

We're so back.

The NFL is back today for the 2026 season! We made it through the doldrums of summer and the offseason, Denver Broncos fans.

And to celebrate the day, here's The Broncos Blitz's Denver Broncos 2026 record prediction piece, complete with game-by-game analysis for the Broncos 2026 season.

Week 1: Broncos at Chiefs, Mon. Sept 14 (MNF)

Normally I'd give Kansas City the edge. It's on their home turf, after all.

But this game is different for a few reasons. It's Kansas City's first game of the year, and Patrick Mahomes is still recovering from his severe knee injury he sustained last year.

In fact, there was still a possibility he wouldn't play vs. Denver until Tuesday when Andy Reid said he'd "most likely" play. Albeit it was a seemingly small chance he wouldn't play. And if for whatever reason he doesn't play, Denver definitely wins.

Even if Mahomes does play, I'm giving the Broncos the edge here.

“I think we’re looking at it and expecting someone who’s 100 percent, someone who’s moving well based on what limited footage you get,” Payton said Monday morning. “He’s going to be one of those guys that threatens you not only in the pocket, but out of the pocket. So our approach has been to pay close attention to what we’ve seen historically, film-wise, and how we defend not only him, but their team.”

Sean Payton and Vance Joseph have an edge over Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo. The win over KC in Denver last year was a masterclass by Joseph. He blitzed Mahomes at the perfect time to seal the win.

Before that pivotal play by Ja’Quan McMillian, the offense made multiple splash plays in the passing game. That was huge because they had struggled there until that point. The Chiefs lost both starting corners this offseason; give Denver the edge when passing.

Denver beat KC late last year too but Mahomes was out and their season was over so it’s not really that indicative of this game.

Plus, left tackle Jeffrey Simmons is out for KC. Mahomes won’t have his left tackle against a great pass rush, although Jonathon Cooper won’t be playing and he usually rushes from that side. Let’s see what Jonah Elliss can do!

When the Broncos have the ball, they should have the advantage too. Because while Kansas City's defense has been great as of late, there's been a ton of turnover and they've lost some of their best players. Trent McDuffie, Leo Chenal, Jaylen Watson, and Bryan Cook are all gone.

Bo Nix and the offense have to start fast in the game. If they do, it'll be a fast start for the season, which only bodes well as the games get even tougher in September and October.

1-0: 24-20, Broncos

Week 2: Jaguars at Broncos, Sun. Sept. 20

Speaking of revenge games, Denver's the team looking for revenge in this one.

Last year, the Jaguars were one of the biggest surprises right along with the Broncos. Jacksonville finished 13-4 and ended the regular season on an 8-game winning streak. They beat the Broncos into submission in Week 16, winning 34-20. Bo Nix struggled and the defense couldn't slow down Parker Washington, let alone stop him.

It was a marquee matchup last December and Denver wilted. This year, they're going to come out strong against Jacksonville. Even with an improved offense, the Broncos probably don't want to get into a shootout against the Jags, and that's where Nik Bonitto and Co. come into play; Denver must pressure Trevor Lawrence and make him make mistakes.

2-0: 27-17, Broncos

Week 3: Rams at Broncos, Sun. Sept. 20 (SNF)

This is when Denver's brutal 6-game stretch to start the season really kicks into gear, even if KC and Jacksonville are decently tough, too.

The Rams are true Super Bowl contenders. They already were last year; LA came within a field goal of making it back to the Super Bowl last February. And then they traded for reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett, and the aforementioned McDuffie, signed Watson, and even Aaron Donald came out of retirement to play for this team.

I think Denver can hang with LA for most of the game, but the Rams are the most complete team in the NFL this year. It'll be Denver's first loss.

2-1: 34-20, Rams

Week 4: Broncos at 49ers, Sun. Oct. 4

The 49ers are looking more and more tame as we get closer to kickoff. They just lost defensive tackle Alfred Collins to a torn patellar tendon suffered in practice in Australia. This, added with the million other injuries for San Francisco makes them less and less scary.

They're still a decent enough team, but no one can deal with this many injuries, plus the distraction of an owner being arrested for soliciting a prostitute and the head coach crashing his car while it was on autopilot. Oh, and the GM uses AI (LOL).

3-1: 24-6, Broncos

Week 5: Broncos at Chargers, Sun. Oct. 11

The Chargers are a tough nut to crack for Sean Payton and Co.

It seems Jim Harbaugh has Payton's number, much like how Payton has Reid's. These old guys have a tell on one another, man.

LA is 3-1 vs. Denver the last two years with Harbaugh as head coach. Their defense has been strong under Harbaugh, and the offense should take a leap forward with Mike McDaniel calling the plays. This one's going to come down to the wire like the early-season game in 2025, and LA will win again.

3-2: 28-27, Chargers

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Week 6: Seahawks at Broncos, Thurs. Oct. 15

After playing in LA, the Broncos have to play the Super Bowl champions on a short week. It does not bode well for Bo and Co. on the offense.

Seattle is likely to be a top-3 defense again this year; look at what they did to dismantle Drake Maye and the Pats in Super Bowl LX. If somehow Nix finds a way to not only survive but thrive against the Seahawks in this game, it'll mean he's on the way to his first MVP. I don't expect that.

However, a strong run game by J.K. Dobbins, RJ Harvey, and/or Jonah Coleman would help slow that attack down.

Flipping sides, I can't wait to watch JSN vs. PS2. Advantage, Patrick Surtain. I'm also not high on Seattle's ability to run the ball this year until Zach Charbonnet returns from his injury.

Still, Seattle will likely win this one.

3-3: 17-13, Seahawks

Week 7: Broncos at Cardinals, Sun. Oct. 25

OK, the Broncos made it through the insane gauntlet that is their first six games at .500. That should be considered a win.

And this is when the schedule gets easy again. When Denver has to make some hay.

They will against the laughably bad Cardinals and blow them out. Maybe so badly Jarrett Stidham gets in during the fourth quarter? That'd be glorious.

4-3: 45-3, Broncos

Week 8: Chiefs at Broncos, Sun. Nov. 1

If Denver wins in Week 1, which I think they will, Kansas City will be out for blood in this game.

That's because Denver will have won four straight games against K.C. even if two of them were without Mahomes.

So, I think the Broncos are the better team, but revenge is huge in the NFL. Plus, the Chiefs will possibly be desperate to stay in the playoff race, just like last year in Denver. That game was magical.

Still, the Broncos will find a way to win and continue to assert their dominance in the division.

5-3: 30-27, Broncos

Week 9: Broncos at Panthers, Sun. Nov. 8

As long as Denver doesn't overlook Carolina because the next week is the bye, this will be an easy win for the Broncos. Poor Bryce Young against Denver's pass rush.

6-3: 33-6, Broncos

Week 10: Bye

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Week 11: Raiders at Broncos, Sun. Nov. 22

By late November, will Kirk Cousins still be playing or will Fernando Mendoza be in? I'd bet it's Mendoza at this point because the Raiders will be all but eliminated.

Denver will win with ease. Courtland Sutton will light the Rai-duhs on fire.

7-3: 30-9, Broncos

Week 12: Broncos at Steelers, Fri. Nov. 27 (Black Friday)

Black Friday, in Pittsburgh, against the black and gold? It's all adding up against the Broncos, here.

I don't think the Steelers will be good this year. Aaron Rodgers is a shadow of his former self and Mike McCarthy shouldn't be a head coach in 2026. But this one reeks of bad weather, which is always the great equalizer.

7-4: 14-13, Steelers

Week 13: Dolphins at Broncos, Sun. Dec. 6

Denver will get back to their winning ways the next week, at least. Hosting the terrible Dolphins will certainly help cures what ails them.

Look for Jaylen Waddle to go off in this game. 2 TD, 200 yards type stuff.

Denver even gets a shutout.

8-4: 35-0, Broncos

Week 14: Broncos at Jets, Sun. Dec. 13

The Jets will be battling the 'Phins for the worst team in the league, along with the Raiders.

For whatever reason, Denver always plays down to New York, especially on the road. Especially for 11 a.m. MT games. But Payton will have them ready and they'll win.

9-4: 17-10, Broncos

Week 15: Broncos at Raiders, Sun. Dec. 20

Finishing off this really easy stretch for Denver is the second game against the Raiders, who will be ready to call it quits with a month left in the season.

Denver needs to make sure to stay healthy and watch out for dirty tackles. Like the one vs. Las Vegas last year that ended Dobbins' season.

10-4: 28-9, Broncos

Week 16: Bills at Broncos, Fri. Dec. 25 (Christmas)

Here's another one of those revenge games. This time, it's Denver's opponent who will want to payback the Broncos instead of the other way around.

Buffalo was beaten last year in the Divisional Round and have to think they would've won against New England in the AFC Championship. Josh Allen fumbled three times in the Divisional Round; he won't do that again on Christmas.

But will it be another Merry Nixmas? Will the Broncos win again, and will Nix go toe-to-toe with Allen?

I think this one will come down to the final seconds. But give Buffalo the slight edge. I'm also not a huge fan of Christmas games, but the NFL has to squeeze all the dollars out of the league as possible.

10-5: 27-26, Bills

Week 17: Broncos at Patriots, Jan. 3

This time, it's the Broncos getting revenge on New England for that AFC Championship loss.

The Pats should be even better on offense this year. It's Maye's third season and he's expected to improve; having A.J. Brown certainly helps. It'll be interesting to see if TreVeyon Henderson takes over the starting running back role this year or if Rhamondre Stevenson holds it still.

Defensively, Mike Vrabel will have his group ready. But it will be Bo Nix running and gunning for the win this year rather than Maye like in the championship game.

11-5: 31-28, Broncos

Week 18: Chargers at Broncos, Jan. 10

It's possible this game decides the division. Or, Denver could be in control at that point.

If LA and Denver are fighting for the AFC West, it would make this a special game. If it's cold, that certainly helps the team from the Mile High City. Justin Herbert historically struggles in the cold.

I'd love to see a Week 18 game that matters; that seems like a rarity lately for the Broncos whether they're resting guys, or the Chiefs are against them (in the past).

Let's say for the sake of the prediction that the division comes down to this game. I think Denver finds a way to beat LA late in a tough battle.

12-5: 20-17, Broncos

Back-to-Back AFC West Winners

By the end of the 2026 season, Denver will be 12-5 and find themselves as the back-to-back divisional winners in the AFC West.

AFC West Prediction 2026

1. Denver, 12-5
2. LA Chargers, 11-6
3. Kansas City Chiefs, 9-8
4. Las Vegas Raiders, 3-14

Here's a quick prediction of Denver Broncos players seasonal stats:

• Bo Nix: 4,150 yards, 30 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 375 rushing yards, 6 TDs
• Jaylen Waddle: 80 receptions, 1,150 yards, 10 touchdowns
• Courtland Sutton: 70 receptions, 1,102 yards, 6 TDs
• J.K. Dobbins: 22o carries, 1,150 yards, 10 TDs (A full year of health!)
• Jonah Coleman: 105 carries, 453 yards, 5 TDs
• Nik Bonitto: 16 sacks, 2 PD, 2 FF
• Patrick Surtain: 13 PD, 3 INT
• Zach Allen: 6.0 sacks, 42 QB hits

Notes: Dobbins will stay healthy the entire year, and set a career-high in carries, yards and touchdowns. Bonitto's 16 sacks would also be a career-high and likely have him in the conversation for DPOY. Nix's passing yards, touchdowns, and rushing scores would each be highs for him, too. As would Waddle's touchdowns.

Playoffs

I'm not sure 12-5 is good enough to earn the Broncos the No. 1 seed again; probably not. But No. 2-3 in the AFC seems reasonable. I like them to definitely win that first round game, and even their second and make it back to the AFC Championship. Everyone is high on the Houston Texans right now, and a Broncos-Texans Championship would be a battle of devastating defenses.

If they played, Bo Nix has the advantage over C.J. Stroud, and Denver's offense is more talented all around.

Super Bowl LXI Prediction

Give me the Broncos in the Super Bowl against the Rams. It'll be a matchup of Week 3 and everyone will call it the Walmart Bowl since Stan Kroenke owns the Rams.

Matthew Stafford's body will break down over the course of the year and Bo Nix will only improve as time goes on. Nix out-duels Stafford and he runs away from the Rams incredible pass rush to hit Jaylen Waddle for a 70-yard touchdown in the game. Denver's defense gets to Stafford 6 times for sacks, and Patrick Surtain not only shuts down Puka Nacua but takes a pick-6 to the house.

Denver will use all the confidence and experience from throughout the season to knock off LA in LA, to win Super Bowl LXI 27-24. Super Bowl MVP: Bo Nix.

Sean Payton becomes the first ever coach to win a Super Bowl with two franchises.

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Rich Kurtzman was born and raised in Denver Colorado and attended Colorado State University in Fort Collins in the aughts. He's been a professional writer since 2011, covering Colorado State football and men's basketball, as well as the Denver Broncos, for many outlets. Current Denver Broncos work can be found on Mile High Sports. Previous credits include CBS Denver and The USA TODAY Sports Media Group.

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